Kentucky Derby Counterpoints: Are Favorites Less Likely to Win than in Other Races?

The “Kentucky Derby Counterpoints” series statistically challenges common assumptions about America’s most popular horse race. To read all articles in the series, go to and click on the Kentucky Derby tab. You’ll often hear the warning, “It doesn’t make sense to bet the favorite in a 20-horse field.” Maybe that’s accurate in Irish steeplechase […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 20, 2024

Friday’s report delivered 2 winners in 3 races and a second-place finisher. All 3 false favorites lost, putting us on an 8 for 9 streak of accurately identifying false favorites. Let’s kick off Saturday’s report with a look at the former Kentucky Derby prep race known as the Illinois Derby, taking place at Hawthorne Race […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 19, 2024

Last weekend’s RTSS reports produced 2 winners in 6 races, with 5 of 6 false favorites losing. We nailed Encino as our top choice in the Lexington Stakes, giving us 4 winners in the final 6 Kentucky Derby prep races! We’re feeling pretty good about understanding the strengths and weaknesses of this year’s Derby entrants. […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 13, 2024

Friday’s report landed 1 winner in 3 races, with 2 of 3 false favorites losing. As mentioned in that report, we picked 3 winners in the past 5 Kentucky Derby prep races. For the third straight year, stakes races for 3-year-olds proved to be our strength. The Lexington Stakes wraps up the spring preps. Our […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 12, 2024

The RTSS reports steered subscribers onto 3 winners in the final 5 major Kentucky Derby preps. The only “false” favorite to beat us was Sierra Leone in a fast-paced Blue Grass Stakes that set up his late charge perfectly. That eye-catching finish also sets him up to possibly replace Fierceness as the post-time favorite in […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 6, 2024

Friday’s Racetrack Super Scout report was short and sweet. Just two races covered. In Gulfstream’s third race we correctly identified the even-money favorite Tour the City as false. Tour the City finished fourth. Our best shot against him was third-place runner Annointed. In the featured Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, we warned that morning-line favorite Impel […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 5, 2024

We ended last weekend with a BANG! On Saturday we called out the false morning-line favorite (Big Everest) in the Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream. Then we predicted rather accurately how the favs Fierceness and Muth would easily win the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, respectively. In the Florida Derby we wisely counseled subscribers to toss […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, March 30, 2024

With the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby on tap, we’ll dig only lightly into the races at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park. And we’ll take an in-depth look at those Kentucky Derby prep races. GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 13. Appleton Stakes. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only) False Favorite: #4 Big Everest (7-2). Reason: […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, March 29, 2024

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $25,000. 1 Mile. Dirt. False Favorite: #1 Dollar Liberty (9-5). Reason: Prior to being claimed from Todd Pletcher, this runner dropped to the $25,000 level and finished a distant second at odds of 3-2 in a 6-horse field. He revisits that level, but unlike the prior run he has […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, March 23, 2024

Over the past two years,  the RTSS reports have excelled at analyzing stakes races for 3-year-olds. To break out of the slump we’re in regarding picking winners, we’ll go with an all-stakes report for Saturday. FAIR GROUNDS RACE 11. Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Dirt. False Favorite: #5 Tarifa (8-5). Reason: […]