RTSS FF REPORT, Saturday, January 20, 2024

FAIR GROUNDS
RACE 2. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 6 Furlongs. Dirt
False Favorite: #10 Wish Carefully (3-1).
Reason: Despite posting back-to-back placings since joining the state-bred ranks, his speed figure and final furlong weakened in his second attempt. In neither race did he threaten the winner. He has yet to show much turn of foot early or late in his races.


BETS
#9 Brittany’s Dream (12-1). He got engaged early in his debut before fading. Morning workouts show a lot of pop, and trainer Shane Wilson wins at a 25% clip with second-time starters.
#11 Springtown (8-1). Owning an impressive pedigree for a Louisiana bred, he debuted at short odds for Steve Asmussen. Although Springtown] hardly ran a lick in that race, the presence of Joel Rosario in this race suggests an effort is forthcoming that’s more in line with his pedigree and debut expectations.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.


RACE 13. Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Dirt.
False Favorite: #7 Track Phantom (9-5).
Reason: Sent off at 9-2 in the Gun Runner Stakes, he took advantage of an early stumble by 1-2 race favorite Nash to contest the early lead against a soft maiden winner. He drew off to win in a tepid 1:44.2, but the stakes score should probably be downgraded based on Nash’s bad trip and a final time only a smidgen better than the one he posted in his maiden win. His need-to-lead style faces stiffer challenges today, both early and late.


BETS
#2 Nash (5-2). He started poorly in the Gun Runner last time and then posted a lightning-fast middle fraction to get into contention. Not surprising, he was a little flat late. With a typical good start, he should make up the 2-length deficit from that 3rd-place effort.
#5 Ethan Energy (4-1). He hasn’t shown much pop from the gate or early foot, but he closed rapidly when downing maidens last time out. As a son of Uncle Mo he might prefer the longer preps later in the spring, but he deserves some consideration here, especially at decent odds.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#2 Nash (5-2), 97
#4 Can Group (6-1), 91
#5 Ethan Energy (4-1), 89


GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 2. Maiden Claimer $25,000. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).
False Favorite: #8 Carnival Dancer (3-1).
Reason: The $200,000 son of Ghostzapper takes a negative class drop from MSW company after a horrible debut.


BETS
#1 Whiting Field (9-2). Martin Drexler wins at a 25% rate with horses going first time off of a claim. This runner has lots of early zip and will likely grab the lead on the rail.
#9 Passage (5-1). Plenty of turf in the pedigree of this Christophe Clement debut runner. Clement has an excellent success rate with debut horses and with Tyler Gaffalione.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.