RTSS False-Favorite Report, Sunday, May 19, 2024

Happy Sunday!

Because I was traveling this past week and hiking in places with no internet access, I missed the midweek scratch of Muth from the Preakness. I apologize for posting an analysis that included him as the false favorite. I hope the $12 winner at Belmont somewhat makes up for that faux pas.

Mystik Dan almost delivered our 2nd win in 3 races covered on Saturday, as he sloshed up for second place in the Preakness. Can our first-ever Sunday report keep us above the 50% win average?


RACE 2. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $20,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Janssen (5-2).

Reason: He’s now 0 for 3 at this level and lower. Last time out, he fell apart late in his first attempt at a mile, completing his final quarter mile in a shade under 27 seconds.

Top Contenders

  • #6 Wafir (9-2), 79
  • #7 Watch Hill (3-1), 79
  • #2 Solo Rye’d (15-1), 75

RACE 4. Allowance N1x. 1 Mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Mistical Curlin (6-5).

Reason: After compiling a 2-for-18 record, the son of Curlin was given time off. Upon return he had gate problems in two consecutive races, both losses. The stretchout will help his cause, but this former maiden claimer is now 0 for 5 at this level and just 2 for 20 lifetime.

Top Contenders

  • #5 Paddington (5-1), 93
  • #1 Seeking Unity (4-1), 92


RACE 9. Maiden Claimer $35,000. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #8 Luna Love (5-2).

Reason: Although she takes her first drop out of MSW company, she has never picked up her feet in any of her five lifetime starts. She gets a 3% turf jockey, which further impedes the path to success.

Top Contenders

  • #11 Roger’s Park (3-1), 77
  • #10 Mobay Princess (12-1), 73
  • #7 Tell Me Some Lies (5-1), 67