RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, March 9, 2024

The Friday report went 3 for 3 in identifying false favorites. With 7 of the past 8 false favs losing, we’re well on our way to repairing the January damage in that category. We should be back above 75% accuracy in short order.

Winners, however, have been tougher to nail down. Although several winners emerged from our carefully compiled “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list, few winners have come from our recommended two selections in each race lately.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 8. Optional Claimer $30,000 (starter allowance). 1 Mile 70 Yards. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Protonic Power (7-2).

Reason: He enters off of a short layoff and a pair of not-terrible stakes tries. His two most recent wins came when running down weaker company at Fan Duel and in a slowly run optional claiming race here. This slow starter will need to circle a large and competitive field. We don’t think he’s up to the task.

BETS

#2 Koufax (4-1). Starter Allowance winners often repeat because they face few rivals dropping in class (per Quinn’s Handicapper’s Condition Book). Koufax embodies that tendency with his back-to-back wins. He tries for win number three while holding a speed-figure edge.

#6 Unified Dreams (5-1). He just missed defeating Koufax last time out. We’ll assume this is a two-horse race and give him a big shot at turning the tables.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Koufax (4-1), 90
  • #5 Master Game (9-2), 89
  • #6 Unified Dreams (5-1), 89

RACE 10. State-Bred Claimer $5,000 N3L. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Hot Patootie (4-1).

Reason: With four failures at this level and two stretch fades in her recent miles, she seems to be over her head and racing at the wrong distance.

BETS

#3 Debs Prayer (5-1). After posting a winning time competitive with the top horses here, she had a troubled trip last time. She should improve with a clean trip in her third start off a layoff.

#8 That Is Awesome (8-1). She returned from a short layoff to face $20,000 claimers. With that prep out of her way, she drops back to the logical class level with the top speed figure in tow.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 That Is Awesome (8-1), 73
  • #10 Arms Apriority (9-2), 68
  • #3 Debs Prayer (5-1), 66

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 8. Claiming $16,000 N2L. 1 Mile 70 Yards. All Weather.

False Favorite: #5 King Silvio (5-2).

Reason: The King hasn’t won since 2022. He also has never crossed the finish line first. He drops to a more appropriate level, but he does so off of declining form.

BETS

#1 Ask in My Name (3-1). The return to an all-weather surface produced a game second-place finish. He’s a fit horse with the field’s second-best speed figure.

#8 Basketball Jones (8-1). As the holder of the top speed figure, he’s a value play even at half his morning-line odds. His tactical speed in sprints should serve the son of Curlin well as he stretches out.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 Basketball Jones (8-1), 89
  • #1 Ask in My Name (3-1), 84