RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, March 16, 2024

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 2. State-Bred Claiming $12,500 N2L or 3yo. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Sweet Little Rose (5-2).

Reason: We pegged her as a false favorite yesterday in a $12,500 sprint. She scratched out of that race and lands here going two turns. Her stretch fades in most of her two-turn efforts lead us to believe this race is a prep for a return to sprinting. Even if we’re wrong about that, her frequent long layoffs suggest bettors shouldn’t expect improved stamina over past route efforts.

BETS

#1 Lightning Mo (4-1). Her game state-bred MSW score was followed by a woeful ninth-place finish against optional claimers. Bret Calhoun comes back quickly with her at a level more in line with her talents.

#5 Cana Gris (9-2). Her flash and fade effort one level up should set her up for a better result here. Loveberry was aboard for her win, and he returns to ride.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Lightning Mo (4-1), 73
  • #5 Cana Gris (9-2), 68

RACE 10. State-Bred Optional Claimer $20,000 N2X. 5.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Drewmazing (4-1).

Reason: This late-charging type has been barely fast enough to squeak past cheaper claimers. It seems unlikely he can mow down horses at this level, especially at this shorter distance.

BETS

#8 Bertie’s Galaxy (8-1). The high-figure challenger offers good odds as he takes a slight class drop off an even effort. This 8-year-old runner is 5 for 13 at Fair Grounds in his career.

#12 Half Again (5-1). Another consistent, experienced runner with lots of success on this track. With two wins in his past four races and a game second-place finish at this level in his last race, he looks ready and able to fire a competitive effort.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 Bertie’s Galaxy (8-1), 88
  • #12 Half Again (5-1), 87
  • #6 Scarlettsblackjack (8-1), 86


GULFSTREAM PARK


RACE 2. Maiden Claimer $25,000. 7.5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).


False Favorite: #11 Live High Live Low (5-2).


Reason: This colt hasn’t run a competitive step in either of his two races. Although he drops from MSW company into a claimer for the first time, nothing about his performance or pedigree merits favoritism.


BETS


#7 Ocala Rocket (3-1). After setting a fast pace last time out at 8.5 furlongs, he shortens to 7.5, drops in class and gets a positive rider switch. Lots to like.


#10 Last Post (15-1). This speedy colt also shortens up. Zayas will likely send him to the lead from his outside post. A clear lead at long odds?


Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses