RTSS False Favorite Report, Saturday, January 27, 2024

Things are looking up! All 3 false favorites lost on Friday, and we caught a winner in the Fair Grounds finale. We’ll try to keep it going in the right direction at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream again on Saturday.
FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 3. Optional Claimer $10,000. 7.5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).
False Favorite: #5 Just Passing Thru (3-1).
Reason: After stalking and pressing for 6 furlongs when returning from a layoff, this typically consistent mare completely gave up late. Given that, the class drop strikes us as negative.
BETS
#2 Quinn Murphy (9-2). This 10-year-old mare loves the turf, loves the distance and still wins at an impressive rate. Great odds for such a career overachiever.
#12 Broadway Pearl (12-1). She launched a strong late bid three races ago in her only turf try at this level. She showed unusual early interest last time, as if her connections decided to use the off-the-turf affair as a workout. She returns to her preferred surface at long odds for a highly competent trainer.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#2 Quinn Murphy (9-2), 82
#7 It’sfiftyshadetime (5-1), 81
#12 Broadway Pearl (12-1), 79

RACE 7. Allowance N1x. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Dirt.
False Favorite: #5 Bright Spark (2-1).
Reason: This unusually slow-starting gelding nearly won at this level last time. More typically, he arrives far too late when racing at this level and even slightly below.
BETS
#3 Fromanuthamutha (5-2). This runner might be over his head, but he posts consistently strong speed figures. Trainer Raymond Handal appears determined to avoid losing him to a claim.
#6 Pyrenees (7-2). This lightly raced runner started the year with a win off of a layoff. The son of Into Mischief seems to have recovered from whatever ailment kept him on the sidelines for a year. Trainer Cherie DeVaux clicks at a 33% rate when using Brian Hernandez to ride.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#3 Fromanuthamutha (5-2), 89
#6 Pyrenees (7-2), 85

GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 11. Grade 3 Fred Hooper Mile. Dirt.
False Favorite: #1 Hejazi (9-5).
Reason: Often horses who overachieve against 3-year-olds disappoint the first time they face older horses. Here we have a horse who underachieved as a 3-year-old now taking on accomplished older horses. (His most recent race was a stakes race restricted to 4-year-olds.) In his two starts at 7 furlongs, he weakened late and posted tepid final furlongs.
BETS
#8 Accretive (5-1). Except for his most recent race, he has been competitive in higher level stakes races.
#11 Tumbarumba (8-1). He owns the two highest recent BRIS speed figures.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#11 Tumbarumba (8-1), 105
#3 Steal Sunshine (6-1), 101
#8 Accretive (5-1), 99