RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, January 13, 2024

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 3. Maiden Special Weights. 5.5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #1 Candy Bar (5-2).

Reason: He disappointed as the favorite last time out when racing on this course for the first time. The distance seems to be too short for this son of Constitution, as his best effort came on the deep and undulating course at Kentucky Downs at 6.5 furlongs.

BETS

#3 Controlled Temper (8-1). Dallas Stewart attempted to steal a race with him on the lead around two turns.  Unfortunately,  this runner got hooked into a pace duel and faded late. Most likely, he comes into this race super fit from that effort.

#7 Truly Grateful (3-1). The son of Violence flashed talent in his morning works and in his debut. The trainer/jockey combo of Stidham and Curtis is clicking at 36%, and they have a live, well-spotted entrant here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 4. Claiming $25,000 N3L. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Naughty Lottie (5-2).

Reason: She begins her descent on the class ladder after a lifeless effort off of a long layoff. She showed no interest early or late in that race and now takes a 50% plunge in class.

BETS

#5 Madelyn Belle (5-1). She was ha daily defeated by De’ Ans Eighty last time as she shipped in from the Illinois circuit. The switch to the Karl Broberg barn could give her the boost she needs to turn the tables.

#7 De’ Ans Eighty (3-1). She comes in off of a dominating win at this level, as Thomas Amoss attempts to make the most of the race conditions. There aren’t any red flags to indicate she won’t repeat her most recent race.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 De’ Ans Eighty (3-1), 81
  • #1 Tu Cha (9-2), 77
  • #5 Madelyn Belle (5-1), 77

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 6. Maiden Special Weights. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Turn Up the Trees (2-1).

Reason: We’ll take our standard stand against a debut horse at a short price. Over the past few years, Todd Pletcher has used Irad Ortiz on most of his best debut horses. Irad rides Pletcher’s other entrant.

BETS

#4 Maximus Speed (6-1). This Pletcher entrant gets Irad Ortiz. The works are solid, and the price is right.

#6 Live High Live Low (10-1). George Weaver is underrated as a trainer of Live debut runners. Here, you get Weaver’s positive ROI, a great trainer/jockey combo, and long odds.

Alternative in case of scratch: #1 Mortgage Rate (20-1).

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.