RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, February 3, 2024

FAIR GROUNDS


RACE 7. Allowance N1x. 5.5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).
False Favorite: #4 Son of a Birch (7-2).
Reason: With three consecutive losses at this level,¬† he’s a shaky favorite. Thomas Morley keeps moving this runner down the class ladder, and he probably needs to descend at least one more rung.

BETS

#7 True Jedi (12-1). If he can come back to his 87 Speed figure from 2022, he’s the likely winner. This is his third start off a very long layoff and his first return to turf. He broke poorly in two recent runs on the polytrack at Turfway, but the 4-furlong blowout on January 27 suggests this former pace dueler might be over his recent gate problems.

#10 Zippin Gigi (4-1). More than half of this early speedster’s races have been failures to win at this level. However, only one of those losses came on the turf. He returns from a long vacation with one of the most steady workout patterns you’ll ever see for a nonstakes runner. He shows a win and a placing in three turf tries, so he might finally be returning to his preferred surface. And given his penchant for starting fast, the shortening of distance might also suit him better.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #10 Zippin Gigi (4-1), 91 (dirt)
  • #6 Custom Bobby’s (6-1), 84
  • #1 Dazzlemesilver (10-1), 81 (dirt)
  • #7 True Jedi (12-1), 80

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 4. Maiden Special Weights. 1 Mile and 1/16th. All Weather.
False Favorite: #5 Bail Us Out (8-5).
Reason: He hardly ran a lick in his dirt debut, starting slowly and finishing even more slowly. His workouts are also slow. The switch in distance and surface makes sense given those factors. But why take short odds on an expensive horse who has demonstrated so little ability?

BETS
#1 Domingo (4-1). After showing early speed in his most recent start, this son of American Pharoah posted a pair of fast 4-furlong works. He looks ready to fire his best as he switches from dirt to what’s likely a more preferable surface.

#2 Who’s the King (7-2). He looks like the only early speed in this short field. He faded badly in a troubled trip with blinkers on in his most recent start. The blinkers come off, and trainer Mark Casse hits at 24% with that move. Throw in a sharp recent workout and Lasix for the first time¬† and you’ve got a lot of positive at decent odds.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses

RACE 9. Swale Stakes. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Bentornato (9-5).
Reason: This modestly bred colt has been beating up on soft Florida-bred company. He’s a need-to-lead runner who’ll encounter tough pace foes here. A quick look at his final furlongs of 13.1 seconds shows he’s not a strong finisher.

BETS
#5 Billal (6-1). This $725,000 son of Street Sense returns to sprinting after two failed routes. His final furlong of 12.2 seconds last October in a 7-furlong race stamps him as the strongest closer in the race.

#7 Legalize (3-1). He ships in from Fair Grounds off of a dominating win in the Sugar Bowl Stakes. In that race the speedy son of Constitution showed he can withstand pace pressure.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Legalize (3-1), 98
  • #9 Frankie’s Empire (30-1), 93
  • #8 Squints (20-1), 89