RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, February 10, 2024

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 1. State-Bred Allowance N3L. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 The Boss Soss (5-2).

Reason: He sports a paltry record of 2 wins in 21 starts. His best efforts have come on the deep surface at Delta Downs and mostly as a sprinter. Add in his 0 for 5 record at this distance, and we’ll confidently toss him out of consideration.

BETS

#2 Duvee (7-2). He’s 2 for 3 at this distance and owns one of the top speed figures.

#6 Manly Deeds (7-2). Despite being the second-most lightly raced horse in the field, he already won at this level and posted one of the highest speed figures.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Manly Deeds (7-2), 81
  • #2 Duvee (7-2), 80
  • #3 Cajun Ami (8-1), 80

RACE 2. State-Bred Optional Claimer $20,000 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Canada’s Customs (2-1).

Reason: She got claimed while winning at this level last time out. The problem we see is that it took her nearly a year to get back to the winner’s circle. In that span, she lost four time at this level or lower. She’s a late closer with no figure advantage over a few rivals, so running them down will be tough.

BETS

#4 Cajun Ninja (3-1). She shares the top of our “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list with #5 Fouralivia. Unlike that need-to-lead runner, Cajun Ninja shows an ability to stalk and pounce. All 3 of her wins were open-lengths runaways.

#5 Fouralivia (5-2). This lightly raced filly is 3 for 4 at the distance. She was 3 for 3 before giving up a clear lead to today’s morning-line favorite. We’ll excuse that disappointment and bet that she’ll return to her 82 speed figure or to something even higher.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Cajun Ninja (3-1) 82
  • #5 Fouralivia (5-2), 82
  • #3 Miss Priority (6-1), 81
  • #6 Royal O’Haigain (8-1) 81

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Cajun Anthem (9-5).

Reason: With two “not even close” failures at this level, this 3-year-old filly doesn’t figure strongly.  The addition of Lasix and Irad Ortiz seems like window dressing for a sprinter with no early speed.

BETS

#2 Sand Wedge (5-2). She showed early speed in her debut, which came at a higher level. Trainer Victor Barboza excels with horses moving down in class.

#3 She Can Scat (7-2). She makes her second start for a trainer who excels with horses in their second start off a layoff and second start off a claim.


Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.