RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 27, 2024

Friday started off well, with our 4-1 shot Have You Heard taking the Aqueduct opener and Login Required, the 4-5 favorite we labeled as false, finishing out of the money.

Dangerous Ride, the 2-1 favorite we identified as false in Aqueduct’s 4th race, also cooperated by finishing out of the money. Alas, we had to settle for second place with Colloqoy at 5-2.

At Keeneland our designated false favorite, Nomos, drifted up to 5-1 and defeated our choice Thomas Aquinas.

In summary, 2 of 3 false favorites lost, and we landed on a winner and two place horses. The running total for the past few weeks of free reports stands at 15 of 18 false favs losing, with 8 winners in those 18 races.

And a reminder…

The Racetrack Super Scout reports picked 4 winners in the final 6 Kentucky Derby prep races (and 5 out of 7 if you include the Illinois Derby). Don’t miss our Kentucky Derby Preview: sign up for the RTSS service now!

AQUEDUCT

RACE 7. Claiming $10,000. 6.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 First Deputy (5-2).

Reason: This deputy has been first only once in the 10 races listed in his past performances. Other than a classic Wayne Potts “rev” job victory in February, this runner identifies as a plodding early runner with an insufficient late kick. The presence of Irad Ortiz in the saddle should send him off at less than the morning line, which should create nice odds on other more likely winners.

BETS

#1 Prince James (6-1). Hes 3 for 9 at the distance, and his past two wins came while in the care of Raymond Handal, who reclaimed him last November. He won his most recent race for fun, and the two recent works look like slow breezes just to keep him happy.

#11 Striking Speed (4-1). You can’t ask for a better prep pattern than the one Rob Atras employs here. After claiming this sprinter for $12,500, Atras raises him over his head in class and stretches him to a mile. Now, for the money run, Atras puts a sharp workout in the books, drops him in class and shortens him back to a sprint. Almost all of Striking Speed’s career earnings were garnered at Aqueduct, and he looks ready to cash another big check.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #11 Striking Speed (4-1), 87
  • #1 Prince James (6-1), 86
  • #6 Tommy Gun (12-1), 86

HAWTHORNE

RACE 5. Claiming $5,000 N2y. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Breaking News (8-5).

Reason: The 8-year-old gelding has only 3 wins in 37 starts. Since returning from a brief layoff necessitated by 3 woeful races, his early speed has disappeared. Despite his slow starts, he has lost ground in the stretch twice, both times at shorter distances.

BETS

#1 Irish Valor (7-2). This old guy hasn’t won since 2022, but he finally drops from higher class races. He’s 10 for 40 at this distance.

#6 Winging Ways (5-1). This gate buster will certainly grab the early lead. His stretch fades have been bad, but it looks like his head start might be larger than usual.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Irish Valor (7-2), 79
  • #6 Winging Ways (5-1), 75
  • #5 Christmas Present (9-2), 73

RACE 6. Maiden Claimer $15,000. 1 Mile 70 Yards. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Sharp Stick (5–2).

Reason: It looks like the plan is to get this sprinter to the lead early and steal the race up front. This runner is 0 for 10, has a sprinter’s pedigree and has lost ground in the stretch nearly every race.

BETS

#2 Gianno (3-1). The lightly raced Larry Rivelli trainee drops in from a pair of MSW tries. Rivelli hits at a 34% rate with horses dropping out of MSW company. Gianno is our solo wager in this race.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses

This is the last weekend of free reports. To catch our reports for Kentucky Derby weekend, including our Kentucky Derby Preview, sign up for the RTSS service now!