RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, March 29, 2024

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $25,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Dollar Liberty (9-5).

Reason: Prior to being claimed from Todd Pletcher, this runner dropped to the $25,000 level and finished a distant second at odds of 3-2 in a 6-horse field. He revisits that level, but unlike the prior run he has shown no competitiveness leading up to the class drop. All signs of early speed are gone, even in his 2-turn races, and his late kick is also MIA.

BETS

#2 Nimmo (5-2). He showed a little tactical speed when trying two turns against MSW company at Tampa. If you ignore the disastrous effort on turf last time, you see a logical return to the $25,000 level, and maybe a sign of the trainer’s seriousness with the rider switch to Paco Lopez.

#5 Tiz Mark’s Spirit (9-2). He finished second in three of his four dirt races. This late-rallying type returns to a dirt and gets an extra furlong to work with.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses

RACE 9. Maiden Claimer $35,000. 5.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Parade Down Broad (9-5).

Reason: I need to create a new category for this type of false favorite. Something like the “Everything but the kitchen sink” approach. After failing miserably in her debut, Parade Down Broad gets a layoff, a class drop, Lasix and blinkers. If the poor performance of this $130,000 purchase was because of lack of Lasix or blinkers, she’d be returning for another shot at MSW company, or $50,000 claimers at worst. Instead, with these “improvements” to her, the owners are willing to lose $100,000 if she gets claimed. Why sell a horse at a huge loss when you haven’t even seen her at her best (that is, with all necessary adjustments)? The logical answer seems to be that either an injury occurred or she’s far less talented than they originally thought. Do you want to take short money on either of those answers?

BETS

#2 Palmetto Fury (4-1). Making her first start for the Saffie Joseph barn, she switches from turf to dirt (a 28% move for Joseph) and picks up the barn’s #1 rider Edgar Zayas. Recent works are decent.

#5 Lace Curtain (5-2). She flashed good early speed in her two tries against better horses. Irad should have her on the lead, and the abbreviated dirt sprint appears to be in her wheelhouse.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

OAKLAWN PARK

RACE 8. Maiden Special Weights. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Barstool Babe (5-2).

Reason: In 4 sprint races, she has never been within 5 lengths of the lead at the top of the stretch. Worse yet, she never was able to cut into that deficit by even 2 lengths. No early speed. No late kick.

BETS

#1 Tweetster (4-1). Norm Casse’s first-time starter posted a bullet 4-furlong work from the gate on March 22. The stable’s favorite rider Rafael Bejarano gets the call on this one rather than on Casse’s other entrant, Goldenshuga. The daughter of Practical Joke is bred to sprint and her workouts indicate she has inherited that pedigree characteristic.

#2 Goldenshuga (8-1). When last raced in November, she showed excellent tactical speed in a Churchill Downs MSW sprint. Her experience against tough competition and her steady string of works might add up to her best effort to date.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.