RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, March 8, 2024

Let’s dive right in…

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 1. Claiming $5,000N2x. 1 Mile 70 Yards. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Izeondec (3-1).

Reason: He’s on deck, but he’s not much of a cleanup hitter at 1 for 23 lifetime. His recent demotion to the minor leagues produced two competitive efforts, but he shows no races in which he finished within a length of the winner. The slight class raise here (from N2L to N2X) doesn’t help his prospects.

BETS

#2 Johnny’s Game (6-1). The most lightly raced runner in the group enters off of a 6-length maiden romp. He’s one of only two entrants likely to show any formidable early speed. He offers the best odds of the three horses in our “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list and could be on the improve.

#4 Vortex (7-2). He tops our speed-figure list. As a lightly raced entrant, he owns more potential than his rivals. The sprint-to-route move nearly worked last time for him.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Vortex (7-2), 73
  • #5 Ronic (7-2), 72
  • #2 Johnny’s Game (6-1), 70

RACE 8. $12,500 State-Bred Maiden Claimer. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Carolina Jacy (3-1).

Reason: We correctly identified her as a false favorite the last time she ran. We noted, “A long layoff was followed by two failed efforts on the class drop to this level. Figures for the second start off the layoff were weaker than figs for the comeback race.” Her speed figures remain weak, so we remain pessimistic about her chances.

BETS

#1 Clearly Creeps (6-1). This second-time starter stretches from sprint to route for a trainer who scores at a 25% rate with second-time runners.

#12 Fist City (9-2). She was our pick last time but failed to come close. This lightly raced filly tries a mile for again for a trainer who specializes at winning two-turn races.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 7. Claiming $12,500 N3L/N1Y. 5.5 Furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #7 Adios Asher (3-1).

Reason: After getting claimed for $20,000 she just missed winning a $25,000 optional claiming race. Then came a 9-month layoff and a near-miss effort at this level. The trend is clearly negative, as confirmed by a steady three-race decline in her speed figures.

BETS

#2 Frosted Faith (5-1). Blinkers come off this runner for a trainer who specializes with that move. Frosted Faith loves this distance and surface, and he should appreciate the class drop.

#6 Veterans Beach (6-1). This 8-year-old returns to an appropriate class level for the potent trainer-jockey combo of Maker and Saez.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Veterans Beach (6-1), 84
  • #2 Frosted Faith (5-1), 83
  • #4 Unsociable (8-1), 82
  • #8 Amor Lejano (9-2), 82