RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, March 22, 2024

The major Kentucky Derby prep races begin this weekend, with the Louisiana Derby from the Fair Grounds. We’ll have a lot to say about that race tomorrow. First, our Friday warmup.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 1. Claiming $5,000 N3L. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Chi Town Hustler (3-1).

Reason: Claimed two races ago for $30,000, this runner returns from vacation at $5000. His pre-vacation race was a last-place disaster that saw him lose 20+ lengths in the stretch. The owner is set to lose $20,000-plus dollars regardless of the outcome here.

BETS

#4 Time to Meddle (6-1). He cuts back k in distance from the same 1-mile race that serves as Uncle Nick’s prep for this. Maybe his early speed will hold up better at 6 furlongs.

#6 Uncle Nick (7-2). The high-figure horse looks solid as he cuts back to a distance at which he’s finished second in 3 of his past 4 tries. His trainer clicks at a solid 18% with horses going route to sprint.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Uncle Nick (7-2) 72
  • #4 Time to Meddle (6-1), 70

RACE 2. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Beautiful Life (6-5).

Reason: This $180,000 runner gets dropped to the bottom maiden level after just two MSW tries.

BETS

#3 Cajun Blast (8-1). He nearly got the job done last time out. If the favorite proves to be false, he doesn’t have much to beat here.

#8 Port Royal (3-1). Trainer Keith Desormeaux kept this runner at Santa Anita a long time, so he must think this guy has talent. This recently gelded runner finally gets the class relief he needs.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 One Fast Dream (9-5).

Reason: The steep class drop did him no good. We’re betting the ensuing layoff off the claim is also a sign things aren’t looking up for this runner.

BETS

#4 Modern Lane (4-1). He switches from polytrack to dirt. His recent race was good, and he posted a sharp workout since.

#7 Assertive Attitude (5-1). His first drop to this level produced a decent second-place run. He gets blinkers on the stretchout.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses