RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, March 15, 2024

Next week we’ll catch up on the year-to-date stats. Our false-favorite accuracy has zoomed back to our preferred level, but our win percentage still lags.
For now, we’ll take our best shot at upping the ROI.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $30,000. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #4 God of Wine (5-2).

Reason: He has failed at this level or lower four times.

BETS

#1 Sagittarius (4-1). He drops out of MSW company. Trainer Brendan Walsh wins with 30% of his runners dropping into maiden claiming company.

#9 Rockstar Red (9-2). Two decent tries against MSW company on turf were followed by a flash-and-fade effort on dirt. This runner should be fit as he returns to his preferred surface and gets a needed class drop.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses

RACE 4. State-Bred Claiming $12,500 N2L. 5.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Sweet Little Rose (7-2).
Reason: She shows five losses at this level or lower, and she seems more suited to extended sprints.

BETS

#4 Daisy de Oro (6-1). Trainer Lee Thomas hits at a solid 20% with horses running second off a layoff. Daisy got in a pace duel on the turf against much better horses. Her fitness from that and her tactical speed as she shortens up should make the class drop a winning move.

#5 Country Belle (9-2). Her maiden win came while taking a huge class drop. It looks like her connections make a similar move by prepping her well over her head.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Daisy de Oro (6-1), 72
  • #5 Country Belle (9-2), 69
  • #3 Brielle Evangeline (6-1), 68
  • #7 Eurostorm (12-1), 68
  • #10 Despeightful (12-1), 68

RACE 9. Claiming #5,000 N2X. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Magic Monday (3-1).

Reason: Since taking a huge class drop to this level three races ago, this gelding hasn’t been within shouting distance of the lead in the latter half of his races. His last win was in 2022 on the turf.

BETS

#3 Just Because (9-2). This last-out maiden winner faces the weakest field of nonmaidens he’ll ever see. A repeat of his most recent effort will land him in the winner’s circle.

#7 Point At You (8-1). He showed early speed in his past two tries, both at this level, before fading badly late. His quickness from the gate in this event could put him all alone on an easy lead against this field of plodders.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Just Because (9-2), 72
  • #7 Point At You (8-1), 67

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 9. Claiming $25,000 N2L/N1Y. 5 Furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #9 Cotton (8-5).

Reason: After being claimed for $50,000 at Woodbine, where he almost never ran a bad race, he threw in two clunkers in the USA. Saffie Joseph offers him up for $25,000. The quick early foot seems to be gone.

BETS

#1 Beganingreenpoint (20-1). He enters this event off of a fast win at the $16,000 level. The speed figure seems low to us.

#4 Volkert (5-1). He has run three consecutive just-miss races. With the highest last-race speed figure and decent odds, he seems worthy of a wager.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Volkert (5-1), 86
  • #2 Zyramid (8-1), 85
  • #1 Beganingreenpoint (20-1), 83