RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, March 1, 2024

February saw us take two steps forward and one step back. We still have some work to do to make up for our lousy January. Fortunately, we’re entering the season of Kentucky Derby prep races, which has been a particular strength for us the past two years.

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FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 2. Claiming $5,000 N4L/N2Y. 1 Mile 70 Yards. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Dre Me Less (3-1).

Reason: She finished far back in 3 consecutive races before running a competitive second when dropped to this level last time. In that span she dropped from a $53,000 allowance to this bottom level. She then failed as the favorite. She might squeak out a win this time, but continued disappointments from her seem more likely.

BETS

#5 Catherine Blaze (6-1). Jaime Torres, who last rode her to victory, returns to ride on the class drop. Torres plus a class drop while switching from turf to dirt produced a loss by a nose two races ago. She’ll be grinding away late in a race full of cheap early runners and pressers.

#7 She’s a Big Star (6-1). This need-to-lead type encountered a pace duel when stepped up in class last time. If she shakes free early this time with the apprentice returning to ride, she might be uncatchable.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Mary Jack (7-2), 75
  • #7 She’s a Big Star (6-1), 74
  • #5 Catherine Blaze (6-1), 73
  • #3 Simple Pleasure (5-1), 72

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $35,000. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Llamarada (4-5).

Reason: She accomplished something nearly impossible: she broke last in all 6 career starts. Because she hands opponents such a huge head start, we suspect a bigger class drop will be needed to get her to the winner’s circle.

BETS

#2 Musthavebeenlove (10-1). She drops to this level for the first time after showing early speed against much better horses in her first two races. The jockey switch to Jose Ortiz will help.

#4 Free Charging (9-2). Her first try with Lasix was preceded with a sharp 4-furlong turf work. She cuts back in distance after competing well for the first half of a turf mile. Trainer Rafael Schisti hits at a stunningly good 45% rate with horses getting Lasix for the second time.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses

RACE 8. Optional Claimer $62,500 N2x. 5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #7 Carotari (2-1).

Reason: We’ve bet against him before in these reports. This 8-year-old runner hasn’t won since 2022. He still jumps into action quickly, but he seems unable to finish strongly. Maybe Jose Ortiz can figure out something his brother couldn’t. We’ll bet against that possibility.

BETS

#9 Xy Speed (30-1). His 97 BRIS speed figure came out of nowhere, but it seems legit given the raw time and the talent of the horse that defeated him.

#2 Whenigettoheaven (8-1). He tried for back-to-back wins, but his most recent race was taken off the turf. He’s back on turf, and Paco Lopez is back aboard.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #9 Xy Speed (30-1), 97
  • #2 Whenigettoheaven (8-1), 94
  • #1 Axthelm (8-1), 93