RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, June 7, 2024

Carnage! Last weekend’s report delivered just one winner. Worse yet, our false-favorite evaluations, after clicking at an accuracy rate of 81% in May, fell to just 20% (1 for 5) for the weekend.

Nowhere to go but up from here. So let’s go!

Performance Stats (since launching new format)

  • False-Favorite ID Accuracy: 66% (14 for 21, with 2 scratches)
  • Win Percentage (races): 34% (8 for 23)
  • “Top Contenders” list horses to win ($2 per horse): 53 bets, 8 winners. $74.70 return for $106 wagered


RACE 1. Maiden Special Weights. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Trulli Warrior (7-2).

Reason: Despite the flashy pair of recent 4-furlong works and Tyler Gaffalione’s 2-for-2 recent record with Todd Pletcher, we’ll take our usual stand against a debut horse going off as the favorite. Not only is it difficult for a horse to get everything right upon debut, but the field looks strong. Also, Pletcher has a long-standing pattern of using Irad Ortiz aboard his most promising debut runners. Ortiz rides the other Pletcher entry, Illuminare (4-1).

Top Contenders

  • #3 Pentathlon (12-1)
  • #4 Illuminare (4-1)
  • #7 Clever Mischief (4-1)

RACE 2. Optional Claimer $62,500 N2x. 1 Mile and 1/4. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Leading Contender (5-2).

Reason: The son of Gun Runner sold for less than his sire’s stud fee. He corroborated that lowball price by breaking his maiden against 6 rivals at Monmouth (rather than at a tier 1 track) and then failing to win 4 different times as a heavy favorite. He’s 0 for 3 at this level and now faces the largest and toughest field since entering the N2x condition.

Top Contenders

  • #4 Costa Terra (4-1), 106
  • #9 Tapit Shoes (8-1), 98


RACE 4. Claiming $8,000 N2L. 6.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Kozem (8-5).

Reason: This runner is seldom in range of the leaders at the top of the stretch. His connections have tried various surfaces, distances and equipment changes to no avail.

Top Contenders

  • #3 Tocia (2-1), 75
  • #1 Wildcat Lunita (12-1), 73