RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, January 26, 2024

A wave of second-place finishes last week has left RTSS in a deep hole for 2024. (See stats at the end of this report.) Our superb November/December streak has turned as cold as the weather in January.
We have slightly more than 11 months to get back in the black.
FAIR GROUNDS
RACE 1. Claiming $5,000 N2L. 1 Mile and 70 yards. Dirt.
False Favorite: #2 Izeondec (2-1).
Reason: Since breaking his maiden by 23 lengths in a 5-horse field, this runner has lost 12 straight. He came closest to victory in a 5-horse field at Fan Duel before finishing a distant second at this approximate level last time out. His inability to stay within range of runners at this level while taking a big class drop, followed by a 40-day layoff, leads us to take a swing against him.
BETS
#4 Point At You (12-1). I’m not sure how a horse that lost by 18 lengths in a sprint will hold up around two turns, but trainer Alexis Claire wins with 32% of her runners switching from sprints to routes. She also comes close to returning a flat-bet profit across her 93 starters in 2023-2024.
#7 Whiskey and Easy (4-1). The huge class drop isn’t as negative as it might seem at first glance. The maiden breaker came at the $12,500 level off of a huge class drop. Joe Sharp wins with 28% of his starters taking this type of drop, and this lightly raced gelding might have more unrevealed upside than his rivals.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Every entrant has posted a figure in the 70 to 73 range.
RACE 9. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $10,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.
False Favorite: #5 Chapellete (7-2).
Reason: Sent off at 37-1 in her debut, she broke ninth and finished eighth of 10 runners. She takes a huge class drop and stretches out, but her works are slow and her pedigree is nothing special. We don’t see the allure.
BETS
#1 Cana Gris (4-1). Draws the rail on the drop in class after a couple sprint preps. The trainer clicks at 21% with horses trying a route for the first time.
#8 Gigi’s Love (5-1). With two late-running sprints sandwiched between two 5-furlong workouts, this runner seems to have arrived at a long-planned route attempt. She also seems to be fit, as evidenced by her second-place finish last time. Trainer Shane Wilson shows a flat-bet profit with horses going two sprints to a route.
Alternate in case of scratch: #6 Fist City (6-1)
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 J J Monet (5-2).
Reason: This 5-year-old mare sports an 0-for-8 career record, marred further by massive stretch fades in 4 of 5 starts in races beyond 5.5 furlongs. She held up well in her most recent start, a 6-furlong race at this level on a muddy, sealed track. Was it the mud that helped her last longer? Or was it a result of her and her rivals finishing the final furlong in :13.4 seconds instead of the more typical :12.4 she encountered in previous races at that distance? Either way, a stretch to 7 furlongs seems like an unreasonable task. We’ll cement her falsity by pointing at the four losses she has already accumulated at this level.
BETS
#2 Queen Valentina (4-1). Carlos Perez used Jesus Rios on a longshot winner recently, and he calls upon Rios to guide the likely pacesetter in this event. Blinkers go on to aid with the fast start. With just one loss at this level, which came after a long layoff, and a pedigree that begs for more distance, this filly is probably as ready and well spotted as she’ll ever be.
#4 Darling Luna (7-2). Before this filly got injured in 2022 she flashed good early speed at the MSW level. Her workout on January 10 suggests she still possesses at least good tactical speed.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

RTSS 2024 CUMULATIVE STATS
False Favorites: 15 (2 scratches)
Losing False Favorites: 7 (46%)
Races Bet: 17
Winners: 2
Total Wagered: $1,700
Total Return: $410

STAKES RACES for 3-YEAR-OLDS
Races: 3
Horses Bet: 5
Winners: 1
Total Wagered: $300
Total Return: $160