RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, January 19, 2024

Last weekend, for the first time in a very long time, RTSS reports were wrong about false favorites more than they were right. FFs beat us in four of six races covered.
Despite that major fail, RTSS pulled out two winners in six races. Both winners stood as solo bets because they went off at odds below 2-1. Using our recommended approach (see below), the return was $410 for $600 wagered.
RACE 7. Optional Claimer $100,000 N2L. 5.5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).
False Favorite: #2 Aspenite (5-2).
Reason: A need-to-lead type at longer distances, this runner failed to make up much ground when closing late at this abbreviated distance last time. Maybe this expensive son of Constitution will improve, but we think it’s more likely to happen at a longer distance.
#2 Cowes (4-1). He pressed Classic Power last time out and tired late. This Saratoga debut winner might have more in the tank in his second start off a layoff.
#4 Classic Power (3-1). He set the pace and outfinished Aspenite at this level and distance. He faces the same setup and much of the same crew, minus the horse that caught him. A sharp workout since that race makes him our top pick.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#4 Classic Power (3-1), 85
#2 Cowes (4-1), 81
RACE 9. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 1 Mile. Dirt.
False Favorite: #7 Court Jester (3-1).
Reason: This slow-starting son of Classic Empire has been too sluggish or too green to get into contention in his two starts. Bret Calhoun added blinkers last time, but that didn’t help. He’s hoping the stretchout will do the trick.
#4 Razor Crest (4-1). He’s another entrant that’s sluggish out of the gate. However, the trainer excels with horses going from two sprints to a route.
#8 Captivating Star (6-1). This runner blasted from the gate and quickly opened a 3-length lead when debuting in a turf route. The trainer excels with horses making their second start, and this runner should find the pace to his liking.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.
RACE 1. Maiden Special Weights. 5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).
False Favorite: #3 Up for It (5-2).
Reason: This 4-year-old filly takes on the boys. She’s 0 for 6 on turf at the MSW level. She has failed at 3 distances and at 4 different tracks. Since her debut she hasn’t come all that close to winning, even when finishing second.
#2 Power of Justice (5-1). A bargain purchase for $45,000, this son of Justify broke poorly in his debut. Look for improvement at a nice price.
#5 Definite Diva (9-2). Irad Ortiz guides this filly into her second start. She closed steadily in her debut after being slammed at the start.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

False Favorites: 10 (1 scratch)
Losing False Favorites: 5 (50%)
Races Bet: 11
Winners: 2
Total Wagered: $1,100
Total Return: $410

Races: 2
Horses Bet: 3
Winners: 1
Total Wagered: $200
Total Return: $160