RTSS False Favorite Report, Friday, February 9, 2024

A really good week two weeks ago got buried by a bad RTSS week last week. The Super Scout needs to start digging out of the 2024 hole it’s in.

The biggest blunder last week occurred on Saturday in the Swale Stakes at GulfstreamPark. We listed Frankie’s Empire (30-1 morning line) as the second-best horse in our “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list, but we decided not to list him as a selection. He prevailed in the Swale, paying $30 to win.

The comeback starts now…

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 8. Claiming $5,000 N2Y/N4L. 1 Mile and 70 yards. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Four Princesses (4-1).
Reason: Although her most recent win (last November at Delta Downs) was earned at this level, that victory came about a year and a half after her prior one. This 9-year-old mare had only four starts in 2023, and her sprint prep for this stretchout shows a significant late-race fade even though she lagged early in the race. Age and lack of adequate preparation seem likely to offset any benefits the class drop might bring.

BETS

#5 Pi Yo Princess (12-1). It looks like a hop at the start ruined what should’ve been the money run as she dropped again to this level. She’s 3 for 11 at FG and 2 for 5 at this distance. Those are impressive stats for a horse competing at this level.

#11 Watrugonnadokaren (9-2). We think “Karen” might win again as she remains eligible to enter the same conditions. If you think she can improve on her 67 speed fig and match her lowest recent turf figure of 71, she’s the most likely winner. Trainer Shane Wilson hits 22% with repeat winners.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Varsity Fly Girl (6-1), 74 (old)
  • #5 Pi Yo Princess (12-1), 73
  • #11 Watrugonnadokaren (9-2), 71 (turf)

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 4. Starter Allowance $50,000 (N1x). 5.5 Furlongs.  All Weather.

False Favorite: #1 My Lady James (9-5).
Reason: She was put on the shelf during a winning streak. Since returning, she went from good to bad in a 2-race span. The class drop here looks like it might be the first of many.

BETS

#2 Sonicus (7-2). She returns from a brief layoff with sharp works. With two wins and a near-miss in her past five starts, she demonstrated an affinity for the polytrack and an ability to win at this approximate class level.

#6 Bodacious Bren (8-1). She has taken a real liking to the synthetic surface, with a win and two placings since switching from dirt. She looks fit as can be and well placed.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Sonicus (7-2), 89
  • #3 Call Me Spicy (5-2), 86
  • #6 Bodacious Bren (8-1), 83

RTSS 2024 CUMULATIVE STATS

False Favorites: 25 (4 scratches)
Losing False Favorites: 14 (60%)
Races Bet: 29
Winners: 5
Total Wagered: $2,900
Total Return: $1,204
(Total Return assumes $100 per race, split between 2 horses in $10 increments, with lower-odds horse overweighted OR betting 1 horse if odds are below 2-1)

STAKES RACES for 3-YEAR-OLDS

Races: 3
Horses Bet: 5
Winners: 1
Total Wagered: $300
Total Return: $160