RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, February 2, 2024

After a rough start to 2024, we ended January with a stellar weekend! Last week’s RTSS reports covered 5 races (not including a race taken off the turf at FG), coming up with 3 winners:

  • Cana Gris, paying $7.20 at FG
  • Pyrenees, paying $5.20 at FG
  • Tumbarumba, paying $18.80 at GP when defeating Baffert’s 6-5 favorite Hejazi

Even better, not a single false favorite defeated us. Full 2024 cumulative stats appear at the end.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 2. State-Bred Claiming $5,000 N2L. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Fitts N Starts (3-1).

Reason: This 4-year-old filly broke her maiden on the turf at $20,000 and now drops to the $5,000 level without ever having another shot on turf. Even more suspicious is that the drop comes after she had to be laid off after each of her past two races.

BETS

#2 Dana’s Mule (5-1). This lightly raced filly stretches out while getting back the rider who guided her to her debut win. She returns from a brief layoff with a decent 5-furlong work.

#8 Scarlett Storm (9-2). She showed signs of competitiveness at higher levels and takes a reasonable class drop. Her lone win came at this distance.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple horses with no recent route races

RACE 5. Maiden Special Weights. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #4 Caroom (3-1).

Reason: He’s a 5-year-old maiden with a marathoner’s pedigree. Although he came closest to winning when running on this turf course at this distance, his first two races were at longer distances and he seems more likely to rally too late than to circle all rivals.

BETS

#5 Anger Rising (8-1). Trainer Chris Block once presided over a stable full of Illinois state-bred horses with turf pedigrees, many of which won on first or second asking. Here Block owns a pricey son of Justify that got a warmup on the dirt. Expect great improvement at long odds.

#7 Righthere Rightnow (5-1). Michael Stidham is an underrated turf trainer (positive ROI) who also does well with horses getting Lasix for the first time. This colt trying turf for the first time has a solid turf pedigree. He competed well in 2 of 3 races in MSW company at Turfway, so he measures up classwise, too.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 5 Furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #1 Breezer (2-1).

Reason: Even though Irad Ortiz climbs aboard for a top trainer (Jose D’Angelo), we’ll take our usual stand against a debut horse that goes off as the favorite. Added to our assumption that a firster is likely to make a mistake or not respond appropriately to new stimuli, we are suspicious of a $165,000 purchase from a top North American sire that shows up in a $12,500 claimer. Talk about wanting to get rid of a horse!

BETS

#5 Hechicero (5-2). He showed good early speed against much better company. The class drop makes sense, and the rider switch to Paco Lopez is a plus.

#7 Ahorsewithnoname (20-1). He’s another entrant that displayed good early speed at higher levels. If he comes back to that 5-furlong split of :57.2 that he ran in his debut, the toteboard should light up with a big prices.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 9. Maiden Optional Claimer $50,000. 6.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Sneak Preview (8-5).

Reason: Again, despite the solid connections, we’ll fire a few shots against this well-bred first-timer. There aren’t any red flags other than this son of Arrogate will likely be at his best in two-turn races.

BETS

#2 Kinsman Redeemer (30-1). While running 6.5 furlongs off of a layoff, he hit the 6-furlong mark in an impressive 1:11.1. The trainer now confidently moves the horse up in class. This looks like a fast and fit horse offering long odds.

#3 Etendre (3-1). He engaged in a very fast pace duel in his debut and then held on well for place honors. Even a slight improvement should get him home on top.

Alternative in case of scratch: #7 The Monopoly Man (6-1)

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RTSS 2024 CUMULATIVE STATS

False Favorites: 20 (2 scratches)

Losing False Favorites: 12 (60%)

Races Bet: 22

Winners: 5

Total Wagered: $2,200

Total Return: $1,204

(Total Return assumes $100 per race, split between 2 horses in $10 increments, with lower-odds horse overweighted OR betting 1 horse if odds are below 2-1)

STAKES RACES for 3-YEAR-OLDS (Triple Crown Trail)

Races: 3

Horses Bet: 5

Winners: 1

Total Wagered: $300

Total Return: $160