RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, February 16, 2024

RTSS caught a $29 winner last week to assist in our quest for profitability. Today, it’s claiming races at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream. Tomorrow we’ll look at the Risen Star Stakes, where we see a reason to wager against the favorite.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 2. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $10,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #9 Carolina Jacy (3-1).

Reason: A long layoff was followed by two failed efforts on the class drop to this level. Figures for the second start off the layoff were weaker than figs for the comeback race. So she enters this contest off of weakening speed figures and a voided claim.

BETS

#4 Hot Golden Girl (9-2). She dueled through a red-hot pace, held well and posted a huge figure for this level. With a fitness edge, figure advantage, tactical speed and apprentice weight allowance, she looks tough to beat.

#5 Fist City (6-1). In her second trip to post she participated in a slow-motion speed duel while trying a mile for the first time. Her quarter-mile split from the 6-furlong mark to the mile was as fast as the final quarter posted by the favorite and by #8 Emilyhasherturn in their most recent 6-furlong sprints. Thus, we see more upside for her, despite the lower speed figure.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Hot Golden Girl (9-2), 68
  • #8 Emilyhasherturn (9-2), 63
  • #5 Fist City (6-1), 61

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 1. Claiming $12,500 N1Y. 1 Mile and 70 yards. All Weather.

False Favorite: #3 Khosea (5-2).

Reason: This 6-year-old mare responded to a small class drop by finishing near the back of the pack in both tries against $20,000 unrestricted clainers. She takes a much larger drop here, but with no sign of fitness or recent competitiveness.

BETS

#2 Current Situation (7-2). Although she’s winless since 2022, her recent efforts have been very competitive and her speed figures are high for this level.

#5 Runaway Breeze (12-1). She successfully switched from sprint to route last July. Elizabeth Dobles tries to repeat that winning move with Jose Ortiz aboard. This mare has finished in the money 7 times in 11 all-weather races at this distance. A live longshot!

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Current Situation (7-2), 83
  • #5 Runaway Breeze (12-1), 79
  • #1 A Ring Thing (3-1), 76

RACE 4. Optional Claimer $16,000 (N1x $16,000 starter allowance)

False Favorite: #4 Khozy Colby (3-1).

Reason: Her only win came when taking a huge class drop and going to post at 30 cents to the dollar. She’s a need-to-lead type who’s declining to typical expectations for a $3,500 purchase. Her maiden score saw her crawl home with a final furlong of 13.1 seconds despite being unchallenged on the lead in slow fractions.

BETS

#1 Just Take Notes (9-2), She enters off of a dominating win in a $16,000 claimer. She’s one of only two contenders with a win outside of maiden company.

#2 Marshmallow Queen (5-1). She popped a huge number when getting Lasix for the first time. The workouts since that win have been long and strong.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Marshmallow Queen (5-1), 88
  • #1 Just Take Notes (9-2), 79
  • #7 Kiki (7-2), 76