RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 5, 2024

We ended last weekend with a BANG!

On Saturday we called out the false morning-line favorite (Big Everest) in the Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream. Then we predicted rather accurately how the favs Fierceness and Muth would easily win the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, respectively.

In the Florida Derby we wisely counseled subscribers to toss out the second and third choices, Conquest Warrior and Hades, and prefer longshots for the place spot. We also advised subscribers to increase wagers on Muth if he went off as second choice to Timberlake (which he did). We also predicted Timberlake would have no stretch kick if he ran faster than usual early. The heavily touted Timberlake ran to our script and faded to fourth place in late stretch (resulting in a longshot landing in second place just as in the Florida Derby).

Are you ready for the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby? Maybe you should read our Saturday RTSS report before answering that question. Stakes races, especially those for 3-year-olds, have been our strong suit, so we’ll include Keeneland this weekend and next.

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 3. Maiden Special Weights.

False Favorite: #4 Tour the City (7-5).

Reason: Mark Casse tries for the sixth time to get this runner to the winner’s circle. This runner likely needs a drop into claiming company.

BETS

#2 Anointed (7-2).

#5 Vino Lux (4-1).

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

KEENELAND

RACE 9. Grade 1. Ashland Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Impel (2-1).

Reason: She’s 2 for 2 in her career, but she’s an allowance winner lining up against 5 stakes winners. Impel might eventually dominate the 3-year-old fillies division. Today, though, the steep class raise looks like too tough of a task.

BETS

#6 Just FYI (3-1). The BC Juvenile Fillies champ returns off a long layoff. We’ll assume she’s resdy to extend her perfect record.

#8 Jody’s Pride (8-1). This runnerup in the BC Juvenile Fillies put another stamp of legitimacy on that race when she returned to win a stakes race at Aqueduct on March 2.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Just FYI (3-1), 100
  • #8 Jody’s Pride (8-1), 100
  • #1 Candied (6-1), 99