RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 26, 2024

What a weekend! What a month of free Racetrack Super Scout reports!

Last week’s RTSS reports delivered 4 winners in 6 races, with 5 of 6 false favs going down to defeat. We’ve now correctly identified false favorites in 13 of the past 15 races we’ve analyzed, and we’ve come up with 6 winners in the past 12 races.

By picking Patriot Spirit, the 5-1 winner of the Illinois Derby, we again showed our mastery in stakes races for 3-year-olds. We approach the Kentucky Derby riding a streak of 5 winners in the past 7 stakes events for 3-year-old colts.

This is the last weekend of free reports. To catch our reports for Kentucky Derby weekend, including our Kentucky Derby Preview, sign up for the RTSS service now!

Be sure to click over to the Kentucky Derby tab on the LazyBettorUSA website to catch all our Derby articles. We’ll have our Kentucky Derby Preview up for sale on Tuesday.

On to this week’s action….

AQUEDUCT

RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $75,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Login Required (9-5).

Reason: Is this $9,000 gelding an overachiever or underachiever? He’s 0 for 9 even though he has crossed the finish line first in 2 of those races, only to be disqualified.

My first assumption was that he has been victimized by bad rides. But add 7 stretch fades to the 2 DQs and you have a worrisome pattern, one that might indicate a chronic physical problem that causes him to wander late in a race when fatigued. That might explain the recent layoffs and the drop out of MSW company despite just “winning” at that level.

BETS

#2 Dark Devil (8-1). Linda Rice, whose horses get buried in the New York win pools, actually shows a flat-bet profit for horses in her care that debut at a mile or longer. Her top rider takes the call, and there are no monsters in sight.

#8 Have You Heard (6-1). Michael Maker has a long record of success claiming horses and then moving them up to win high-level claiming races, allowance races and minor stakes. He claimed this runner for $10,000 more than the horse sold for as a yearling, so clearly Maker sees significant upside. A brief freshening and strong works followed.

Have You Heard has two placings in MSW company and has shown decent early speed against that tougher competition. To us he looks like the best bet in this event.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses

RACE 4. Claiming $32,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Dangerous Ride (5-2).

Reason: This gelding shipped into New York last year off of failed stakes tries elsewhere, and he proved to be no match for Saratoga claimers. He ships in now off of a poor race against optional claimers at Gulfstream. He stretches to a mile after a career of sprints, which suggests he has lost the quickness that made him successful in shorter events. With a few rivals owning recent BRIS speed figures higher than his, he looks very vulnerable in this ultra-competitive race.

BETS

#1 Colloquy (7-2). By squeezing out a win at the $25,000 level, he improved his record on fast dirt tracks to 6 wins in 16 starts. He owns the top recent speed figure as he takes a logical one-step raise in class.

#8 Allaboutthemoney (8-1). After failing miserably when stretched to 11 furlongs, he returns to the distance at which he owns 3 of his 5 wins and posted a high figure. When last entered in a claimer, he blew away rivals at the $25,000 level. After running a marathon, he should be plenty fit on the return to a more logical class and distance.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Colloquy (7-2), 90
  • #8 Allaboutthemoney (8-1), 89

KEENELAND

RACE 5. Allowance N1x. 1 Mile and 3/16ths. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #10 Nomos (7-2).

Reason: Todd Pletcher has tried everything to get this plodding son of Uncle Mo to the winner’s circle again. After notching a brilliant debut win on turf, Nomos has finished out of the money five times, failing at 4 tracks and on turf and dirt. The drop into allowance company two races ago failed to generate improvement and neither did the addition of Lasix or blinkers.

BETS

#3 Uncle Truly (4-1). He owns two of the highest speed figures in the field, but those figs failed to get him close to victory in southern California. That suggests he’s taking a hidden class drop here. It looks like he’d just need to run back to those numbers to prevail.

#8 Thomas Aquinas (9-2). The son of multiple turf stakes winner Catholic Boy owns the fastest 1-mile turf time in this field. He’s also one of the few entrants who hasn’t failed in a turf allowance race.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses

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