We modeled the Racetrack Super Scout (RTSS) service on the principles laid out in Roger LeBlanc’s book The Punter’s Tale: A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits. The approach boils down to two simple steps:
- Identify false favorites.
- Bet against the false favorite using the two runners with the highest relevant speed figures.
After a profitable opening quarter of business, RTSS stumbled through a tough summer last year. So we put aside data collection to focus on improving our win percentage. That effort paid off, and it’s time to catch up on 10 months of stats.
We’re working backwards from the most recent Racetrack Super Scout reports. To start, we’re posting results for the past 30 days. We’ll shoot for updating those stats monthly, adding the results for the upcoming weeks while also extending the record back to the first of the year.
RTSS DETAILED RESULTS
Here are the key metrics for the Racetrack Super Scout selections and false-favorite evaluations over the past 30 days (May 19 – June 23):
- $1,320 wagered; $1,414.95 (Profit $94.95, ROI +. $.07)
- 10 winners in 33 races (2 winners not counted due to odds; 12 for 35 if counted)
- False-favorite win rate 42% (15 for 35)
With 2-horse bets, our goal is to pick winners in 40% or more of our races. We also shoot for a false-favorite win rate of 25% or less.
Despite falling short of these goals in June 2023, we managed to post a positive ROI. The total numbers for 2023 will be much better, and we hope to get those finished soon. Details of the recent picks appear below.
We calculated results using the following guidelines (as periodically published in the RTSS reports):
- Use a bankroll of $40 per race.
- Bet 2 RTSS selections per race unless one is scratched or odds fall below 2-1 on one selection. (Then bet only the lower-odds horse, unless RTSS states a preference for the other pick.)
- Bet $20 per selection if odds are about the same (e.g., 5-1 and 7-1).
- Bet the entire $40 to win in races that have only one selection (unless specific recommendation is to bet win/place).
- Overweight your bet on the lower-odds horse if odds greatly diverge (e.g., 5-2 and 5-1). That means arranging bets so that your return is higher if the lower-odds horse wins.
- For selections going to post at 8-1 and above, bet only enough to turn a minimal profit. That means bet only enough to cash an amount above $40.
- In races where one RTSS selection goes off at even money or less, do not bet at all.
Staying within these parameters produced the results mentioned above. (Note that we didn’t claim a 13-1 winner we picked on May 19, because our other pick fell below 2-1. We also didn’t claim Preakness winner National Treasure even though our RTSS report said he was the only horse who could upset legitimate-favorite Mage.)
Below are all the races RTSS covered and the results obtained if the suggested betting strategy was applied:
May 19, 2023, Friday
BELMONT PARK Race 1
- FF Old Point lost
- RTSS pick Break the Ice WIN $28.80
- RTSS pick Bold Honor OOM @ $1.85-1
- Bet $40 with pick below 2-1; Return -$40
BELMONT PARK Race 2
- FF Chasing Daylight lost
- RTSS pick Hypnocurrency OOM @ $5.40-1
- RTSS pick Yogi PLACE @ $4.70-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
PIMLICO Race 11
- FF Breath Away lost
- RTSS pick Thirty Thou Kelvin OOM @ $29.90-1
- RTSS pick Well Into OOM @ $3.40-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
May 20, 2023, Saturday
BELMONT PARK Race 2
- FF Charging lost
- RTSS pick Golden Nugget scratched
- RTSS pick Eye Witness WIN $7.70
- Return $154; Profit $114
BELMONT PARK Race 3
- FF Eyes on Target scratched
- RTSS pick High Tide scratched
- RTSS pick Healing SHOW
- Off turf. No bets.
PIMLICO Race 1
- FF Rock the Boat WIN
- RTSS pick Swifty Devil OOM @ $14.50-1
- RTSS pick American Speed PLACE @ $2.30
- Return $0; Profit -$40
May 26, 2023, Friday
BELMONT PARK Race 5
- FF Mauritius lost
- RTSS pick Feathers Road scratched
- RTSS pick Penner Ash WIN $6.40
- Return $128; Profit $88
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 1
- FF Prevent WIN
- RTSS pick Zingales King OUT OF MONEY (OOM)
- RTSS pick Titan OOM
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 2
- FF Tik Tokable lost
- RTSS pick Travel Guide OOM @ 6-1
- RTSS pick Natural Vibes WIN $7.20
- Return $100.80; Profit $60.80
May 27, 2023, Saturday
BELMONT PARK Race 4
- FF Winters Lion lost
- RTSS pick Alternate Reality WIN $11.60
- RTSS pick Smooth Flyin Mike SHOW @ $2.05-1
- Return $75.40; Profit $35.40
BELMONT PARK Race 6
- FF Vittorio lost
- RTSS pick Colonel Bowman WIN $6.20
- RTSS pick Majority Partner SHOW @ $1.95-1
- Return $124; Profit $84
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 1
- FF Lieutenant Stan WIN
- RTSS pick Mexicoffee SHOW @ $2.70-1
- RTSS pick Jay’s Delight OOM @ $9.00-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
June 2, 2023, Friday
BELMONT PARK Race 3
- FF South Street lost
- RTSS pick Flute Master OOM @ $.90-1
- RTSS pick Son of an Ex WIN $7.60
- Bet $0 with pick @ 4-5; Return $0
BELMONT PARK Race 4
- FF Melting Snow WIN
- RTSS pick Customerexperience PLACE @ $2.15-1
- RTSS pick Run Devil OOM @ $6.30-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 6
- FF The Twins Sneakers WIN
- RTSS pick Grand Player OOM @ $2.30-1
- RTSS pick Lord Jaxston SHOW @$6.30-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 7
- FF Light and Path WIN
- RTSS pick Shez Speightful PLACE @ $2.80-1
- RTSS pick Bullock OOM @ $2.80-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
June 3, 2023, Saturday
BELMONT PARK Race 2
- FF Highland Grace WIN
- RTSS pick She’s Mo Bubbly PLACE @ $4.40-1
- RTSS pick Pret a Toucher OOM @ $4.60-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
BELMONT PARK Race 6
- FF Diamond Hands lost
- RTSS pick Anna Karenine SHOW @ $4.80-1
- RTSS pick Gal in a Rush PLACE @ $2.05-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 4
- FF Bobby’s Candy WIN
- RTSS pick Love Spell PLACE @ $2.90-1
- RTSS pick Voy Y Vengo OOM @ $1.50-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 5
- FF The Sleepychipmunk WIN
- RTSS pick Capturethelaughter PLACE @ $7.10-1
- RTSS pick Minella SHOW @ $6.40-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
June 9, 2023, Friday
BELMONT PARK RACE 5
- FF Long Term lost
- RTSS pick Thunderian OOM @ $5.60
- RTSS pick Endowed OOM @ $4.80-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 1
- FF Media Sensation WIN
- RTSS pick Make ‘Em Tap SHOW @ $7.20-1
- RTSS pick Emergency Response PLACE @ $3.30-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 4
- FF Loyal Louise WIN
- RTSS pick Gun Maestro OOM @ $11.30-1
- RTSS pick Barone Cesco PLACE @ $4.70-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
June 10, 2023, Saturday
BELMONT PARK RACE 1
- FF Love to Shop WIN
- RTSS solo Accept the Outcome OOM @ $2.85-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
BELMONT PARK RACE 11
- FF Up to the Mark WIN
- RTSS pick Warren Point OOM @ $4.90-1
- RTSS pick Ottoman Fleet SHOW @ $2.00-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
BELMONT PARK Race 12 BELMONT STAKES
- FF Forte lost
- RTSS pick Tapit Trice SHOW @ $5.30-1
- RTSS pick Arcangelo WIN @ $7.90-1
- Return $178.00; Profit $138.00
GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 5
- FF Fivefive Six Champ lost
- RTSS pick Majestic Drama OOM @ $7.80-1
- RTSS pick Chief Rocka OOM @ $2.10-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
June 16, 2023, Friday
BELMONT PARK RACE 8
- FF Candle lost
- RTSS pick Frosted Oats scratched
- RTSS pick Shootouthelights SHOW @ $.90-1
- Bet $0 with pick @ 4-5; Return $0
BELMONT PARK Race 9
- FF Guns and Graces lost
- RTSS pick Sunset Louise WIN $7.10
- RTSS pick Bustin Bay scratched
- Return $142; Profit $102
GULFSTREAM PARK Race 4
- FF Flag Woman WIN
- RTSS pick Guardian Angel PLACE @ $1.60-1
- RTSS pick Dove in Charge SHOW @ $3.90-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
June 17, 2023, Saturday
BELMONT PARK Race 10
- FF Quick Power Nap lost
- RTSS pick Rum Runner Ready WIN $6.70
- RTSS pick Smokin’ Hot Kitty SHOW @ $16.50-1
- Return $123.95; Profit $83.95
WOODBINE Race 2
- FF Hekla’s Aura WIN
- RTSS pick Eye Got It Good PLACE @ $2.60-1
- RTSS pick Tamana SHOW @ $4.15-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
WOODBINE Race 10
- FF Social Drinker lost
- RTSS pick Give Me the Boots WIN $7.60
- RTSS pick Impossible Bertie OOM @ $10-1
- Return $136.80; Profit $96.80
June 23, 2023, Friday
BELMONT PARK Race 8
- FF Cupid’s Heart lost
- RTSS pick Amaretti scratched
- RTSS pick Khali Magic WIN $12.60
- Return $252; Profit $212
BELMONT PARK Race 9
- FF Stow on the Wold lost
- RTSS pick Gossiping Pando OOM @ $9.50-1
- RTSS pick Chulligan OOM @ $3.55-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
WOODBINE Race 2
- FF Unilateral scratched
- RTSS pick Blockbuster OOM @ $11.95-1
- RTSS pick Twisted Path SHOW @ $4.00-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
WOODBINE Race 6
- FF Foxy Lady lost
- RTSS pick Dreaming of Audrey OOM @ $4.70-1
- RTSS pick Ishiyaya OOM @ $3.90-1
- Return $0; Profit -$40
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