Week 1 of our False Favorite Reports started with a bang.
Each report rates the morning-line favorite for every race as “Legitimate” or “False.” According to the cumulative stats in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits) and in our “Instant Value Handicapping” video series on YouTube, the “False” category pinpoints favorites likely to lose 80 to 85% of the time. These reports help you to focus your betting action in races where the favorite will beat you only half as often as typical! A real bargain for $1.95!
As a bonus, each report contains suggested alternative bets in races containing false favorites. The report also contains a suggested Place bet on the “most solid legitimate favorite of the day” at that track.
Here’s a quick look at the Week 1 results for the two reports we issued.
Evangeline Downs False Favorite Report
The Evangeline Downs report contained one race with a false favorite. That false favorite lost. Perfect! Even better the suggested alternative horse, Ultimate Challenge, won by over 14 lengths!
The Evangeline report also included a suggested Place bet on the “most solid favorite of the day.” That favorite cooperated well enough to finish second in race eight.
In short, all recommended bets on the Evangeline Downs False Favorite Report turned a profit!
Belmont Park False Favorite Report
At Belmont Park, things didn’t go quite as well.
We flagged two races containing false favorites. Here we were right only 50% of the time, with one false fav beating us. Even more disappointing, we had no winners, with our recommended bets running 2nd in both races.
On the bright side the recommended Place bet in the fourth race was a winner.
Another positive note for Belmont: in the 9 races we identified as containing legitimate favorites, 4 favorites won. We successfully steered bettors away from a group of races in which favorites won 44% of the time. That certainly suggests brighter, more rewarding days lie ahead for us at Belmont Park.