The Racetrack Super Scout had a rocky Week 5! On Friday, April 1, we played the fool. For the first time ever we got shut out on winners, going 0 for 4. On Saturday we regrouped and nailed 2 winners in 3 races, with all 3 false-favorites we identified suffering defeat.
In the Racetrack Super Scout’s continuing coverage of Kentucky Derby prep races, we correctly identified false favorites in two feature events. Using the morning line, we emphatically ruled out alleged super filly Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby and, a bit less emphatically, tossed out Simplification in the Florida Derby. The Racetrack Super Scout string of identifying top Kentucky Derby prospects now extends to picking 4 prep winners in the 5 races covered.
The bottom line: The RTSS overall ROI dipped slightly into negative territory, with $1,200 in total wagers and $1,161.80 returned. Keep two factors in mind, though:
- We’re not counting a 7-5 winner in Week 1 (before we started accepting odds that low), and we’re not counting our selection of Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby, again because of our odds limit at the time.
- We’re assuming an absolute minimum overweighting of the lower-odds horse in our 2-horse wagers. If you’ve been overweighting just $2 more than minimum, your ROI would be positive.
As stated in our last “Optimizing IVH” document (for RTSS subscribers only), rather than dutching bets to get the same return regardless of which of our 2 horses wins, you should overweight the lower-odds horse so that your return is higher for that horse. Week 5 results strengthen this trend of our lower-odds horses delivering more wins and a higher ROI. Both winners this week entered the starting gate with lower odds than their recommended counterparts.
See the “WEEK 5 WINNERS LIST” section. If you increased your bet just $2 more on each winner, you’d essentially break even in the worst week for RTSS to date. So keep overweighting our most heavily backed picks and fading our longshots!
WEEK 5 WINNERS LIST (See wagering strategy below.)
Here are our winners and payouts for this week:
- Gulfstream Park, Saturday, Race 3. Family Way, $26 Win bet returns $72.80 (13 x $5.60).
- Oaklawn Park, Saturday, Race 12 (Arkansas Derby). Cyberknife, $24 Win bet returns $163.20 (12 x $13.60)
TOTAL BET (13 horses*): $260
TOTAL RETURN: $236.00
WAGERING STRATEGY
The results reflect our most recent optimizations (assuming $40 bet each race):
- Bet 2 horses.
- Accept odds of 1-1 and higher, but bet only the lowest-odds horse if the odds on 1 recommended horse fall below 2-1.
- Skip the race if 1 of 2 suggested horses falls below even money. (Don’t bet against that legitimate favorite.)
- Overweight lowest-odds horse of 2-horse wagers so that your return is higher if the well-bet choice wins than if the longer odds choice wins. Example: Bet $25 to win if Horse A is 3-1 (return of $100) and $15 win if Horse B is 5-1 (return of $90).
- Bet only half of hypothetical $40/race bankroll if one selection is scratched.
In short, you’re always leaning toward the lower-priced selection and shaving your bet on the longer-priced horse as the odds go lower on the preferred choice. Going forward, RTSS will assume an overweighting slightly higher than the minimum overweighting we’ve been using.
OVERALL STATS BETTING AGAINST FALSE FAVORITES (5 Weeks)
- 35 races analyzed, 14 winners, 40% (goal is 50%)
- 33 false favorites, 25 lost, 71% (goal is 80%)
- $1,200 wagered vs. FFs. $1,161.80 returned
OVERALL STATS BETTING ON LEGITIMATE FAVORITES (3 Weeks)
- 3 races analyzed, 3 winners (only 2 recommended bets)
- $40 wagered on Legit Favs. $106 returned.
SUMMARY
We fell behind a bit in reaching our False Favorite target and expected win percentage. Considering this was the worst weekly performance for RTSS, the backwards step seems inconsequential. A return to normal performance next week will get us back to a positive ROI.
We regularly state that a goal of our approach is to avoid long losing streaks. We lost 4 straight races on Friday (our longest losing streak) and then hit our first and third bets on Saturday. Mission accomplished there, but we can and shall do better!
See you next week! And don’t forget to renew your subscription if you signed up for one month (which ends March 31)!
