The Racetrack Super Scout registered its third winning week out of four! We nabbed 3 winners in the 7 races covered. And we identified false favorites at a slightly below-average, but still-profitable, rate of 71%.
In the Racetrack Super Scout’s third weekly bonus race, the Louisiana Derby, we tagged Epicenter as the legitimate favorite. We didn’t go so far as to recommend a bet on him at low odds, so we can’t add his $4.00 win price to our ROI. But the Racetrack Super Scout string of identifying top Kentucky Derby prospects now extends to picking three Derby prep winners in a row.
WEEK 4 WINNERS LIST
Here are our winners and payouts for this week:
- Gulfstream Park, Friday, Race 3. Karla Sofia, $20 Win bet returns $108.00.
- Gulfstream Park, Saturday, Race 2. No Commission, $20 Win bet returns $84.00
- Gulfstream Park, Saturday, Race 10. Race Craft, $24 Win bet returns $91.20.
TOTAL BET (12 horses*): $240
TOTAL RETURN: $283.20
(* Results reflect most recent optimizations: Betting horses at odds of 1-1 and higher; overweighting lowest-odds horse of 2-horse wagers; betting only half of hypothetical $40/race bankroll if one selection is scratched)
OVERALL STATS BETTING AGAINST FALSE FAVORITES (4 Weeks)
- 28 races analyzed, 12 winners, 42% (goal is 50%)
- 26 false favorites, 20 lost, 77% (goal is 80%)
- $940 wagered vs. FFs. $925.80 returned
OVERALL STATS BETTING ON LEGITIMATE FAVORITES (3 Weeks)
- 3 races analyzed, 3 winners (only 2 recommended bets)
- $40 wagered on Legit Favs. $106 returned.
**The combined stats give us a positive ROI (+5%), with $980 wagered and $1,031.80 returned.**
If we assumed, instead, an overweighted bet of $24 on the two legitimate favorites (Simplification and Classic Causeway), that would push us even further into positive territory.
To avoid moving the goal posts in mid-game, one winner isn’t included in the totals above: a 7-5 winner prior to our including that odds level as playable. But congrats to you if you wagered on it anyway!
SUMMARY
We’re still close to our False Favorite target and expected win percentage. Most importantly the Racetrack Super Scout continues delivering an overall positive ROI.
At the top of our False-Favorite Reports in the past two weeks, we point out that another goal of our approach is to avoid long losing streaks. Well, mark that down as a success too! We’ve registered 3 winning weeks out of 4.
See you next week! And don’t forget to renew your subscription if you signed up for one month (which ends March 31)!
