The Racetrack Super Scout (RTSS) landed on 8 winners in 17 stakes races for 3-year-olds from March through the Belmont Stakes last year. We’re closing in on that total this year with 6 winners in 11 stakes races for 3-year-olds. Going 3 for 3 this Saturday would put us over the top!
So here are our best shots in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. (Analysis for the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the San Felipe at Santa Anita are available as part of the subscriber RTSS service.)
Don’t miss our analysis for major Kentucky Derby preps. Subscribe to the RTSS now. It’s one of the best values among thoroughbred handicapping services!
RACE 9. Grade 3 Gotham Stakes. 1 mile. Dirt.
False Favorite: #13 Eyeing Clover (4-1).
Reason: Two dominating wins in 6-furlong races earned this modestly bred runner from the Brad Cox barn a shot on the Derby Trail. But he stretches to a mile off a sprint in which he completed his final furlong in a dawdling :13.2 seconds.
This speed-oriented runner faces lots of other speed types. He’ll likely need to pick up the pace early AND late, compared to his prior two races. Doing one or the other is tough enough. His accomplishing both is unlikely.
#5 Carmel Road (6-1). This recent transfer out of Baffert’s magic kingdom barn cuts back to one turn after showing sharp early speed when finishing second in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. His 5-furlong works are razor sharp, and he’ll no doubt gun for the lead again. He looks well prepared and well spotted at a distance that’s right in his wheelhouse. His BRIS speed figure indicates he might also hold an edge in terms of proven talent.
#10 Lugan Knight (6-1). His BRIS speed figure comes up light, but he finished his Jerome Stakes victory with a strong final quarter of a mile. His game finish came despite being pressured on the lead the whole way. Dylan Davis gives up a chance to ingratiate himself with Brad Cox by getting off Slip Mahoney and choosing to stay aboard this runner.
Interesting Longshot: #7 Transect (15-1). He’s been perfect on the polytrack at Turfway Park. This $300,000 son of Gun Runner might have tons of upside, especially if it turns out that he prefers dirt surfaces.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
- #5 Carmel Road (6-1), 102
- #14 Recruiter (12-1), 99
- #11 Slip Mahoney (5-1), 98
- #10 Lugan Knight (6-1), 94