OVERALL GOALS AND WAGERING STRATEGY
We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The Punter’s Tale describes how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders.
We expect to see a false-favorite failure rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Win/Place bet as described in the following steps) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple for the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses, using a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race. Dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a long-term 50% win rate, accept odds of 8-5 or higher. If the odds on one horse drop below 8-5, treat that horse as a legitimate favorite and don’t bet against it. Instead, bet only on that horse, using $40 Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched and you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, assume that horse is a false favorite and continue with your wager as described in the steps above.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, wager $100 to Place on the strongest favorite on the card.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
EVANGELINE DOWNS
Saturday, June 26, 2021
Race 1. $5,000 Claimer N2L State-bred. 5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #4 Custom Kat, 3-1
Favorite Type: FALSE. Mustachioed Wife (See The Punter’s Tale for definition.)
Suggested Bets: #6 South Al Sparky (9-2), #7 Coast Guardsman (10-1)
Bet Rationale: #4 Custom Kat takes his sixth try at this level. Despite being a longtime bottom-dweller, Kat can’t keep within 3 lengths of his rivals at the top of the stretch. That leaves this lackluster plodder too much ground to make up late in the race.
#6 South Al Sparky won his debut at the $5,000 maiden level but faced much better horses after that. Most recently he vied for the early lead against $12,500 claimers at Louisiana Downs. Class relief and a switch to the rider who won with him should help his cause.
#7 Coast Guardsman also drops from the $12,500 claiming level. He stalked a blistering pace last time out. As a need-to-lead type, he should appreciate the slower pace of this affair. He was gelded after his last race and returned to the track with a bullet 5-furlong work, suggesting improvement might be imminent.
Race 2. $12,500 N2L Claimer. 5 furlongs. Turf (suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #8 Building Home, 3-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against. The class drop from a near-win at the $20,000 level to the $12,500 level seems negative at first. But Building Home’s last race looks like a money-run setup that fell a neck short. If the trainer sees that effort as the best he can expect, a slight class drop makes sense here.
Race 3. $27,000 Allowance N1x. 6 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #3 The Aurelia Factor, 9-5
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 4. $27,000 Maiden Special Weights State-bred. 1 mile. Turf (suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #5 Wish Upon a Star, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: Place bet on #5
Bet Rationale: We see Wish Upon a Star as the strongest favorite on the Saturday card. We expect these types to finish first or second at least 75% of the time.
Race 5. $20,000 Claimer N2L. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #2 Crusader Express, 7-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 6. $10,000 Maiden Claimer. 7 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #4 Doctor Leo, 9-5
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None.
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 7. $5,000 Claimer N4L/N1Y. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #4 Orb’s Soul, 2-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None.
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 8. $29,000 Allowance N3L State-bred. 7.5 furlongs. Turf (suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #6 Wise Verdict, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None.
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 9. $5,000 Maiden Claimer. 5 furlongs. Dirt.
Favorite: #3 C C Crown’s Choice, 5-2
Favorite Type: FALSE. Falling Knife (See The Punter’s Tale for definition.)
Suggested Bets: #1 Puzzling Priority (9-2), #10 Blue Ridge Honor (8-1).
Bet Rationale: #3 C C Crown’s Choice takes her third negative drop to go along with the four layoffs in her 5-race career. Joining the list of negative attributes is her lack of early speed in her most recent start, the loss of ground throughout that race and the eighth-place finish.
#1 Puzzling Priority takes her first foray at the bottom claiming level after showing good early speed against better maidens at The Fairgrounds. The class drop here is significant, as is the shortening of distance. She’s not being asked to carry her speed very far or against very much talent.
#10 Blue Ridge Honor debuts for a trainer with a positive ROI with debuting horses.
STATISTICS FOR PAST EVD FALSE FAVORITE REPORTS
False Favorites: 8 (This is the fifth EVD report)
False Favorite Win %: 62.5 (5 for 8)
Races with Alt Bet Winners (%): 25 (2 for 8)
Alternative Bet Return vs. False Favorites
(based on $100 hypothetical Dutching in $10 increments):
$800 in Win bets = $438 return (total return = -$362)
Legitimate Favorite Place Bets: 2 for 2 (ROI: + .20)
(You can purchase a copy of The Punter’s Tale at lazybettorUSA.com for data and details about false-favorite categories such as the Mustachioed Wife, Falling Knife and Piper’s Fife.)
