We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The Punter’s Tale describes how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders.
We expect to see a false-favorite failure rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Win/Place bet as described in the following steps) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple for the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses, using a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race. Dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a long-term 50% win rate, accept odds of 8-5 or higher. If the odds on one horse drop below 8-5, treat that horse as a legitimate favorite and don’t bet against it. Instead, bet only on that horse, using $40 Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched and you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, assume that horse is a false favorite and continue with your wager as described in the steps above.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, wager $100 to Place on the strongest favorite on the card.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
Race 1. $3,500 N2Y Claimer. 6 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #6 Mirror Image, 8-5
Favorite Type: FALSE (Falling Knife favorite; see The Punter’s Tale)
Suggested Bets: #3 Cougar Country (9-2); #5 Awesome Image (3-1)
Bet Rationale: The favorite, Mirror Image, drops to the lowest level he has seen in nearly two years after fading badly at the level of his last Emerald Downs victory. A drop to the $5,000 level would be reasonable. A drop to this $3,500 restricted race shows a complete lack of confidence by the trainer. Also, the conditions are for nonwinners of 2 races since April 2021, which favors horses with one win since then. Mirror Image has no wins since then, which means he doesn’t fit the conditions very well. It looks like a fire sale to us.
#3 Cougar Country picks up the jockey who abandons the favorite. Although he also doesn’t fit these conditions (with no wins since April), he ran his best race in nearly a year last time out and shortens to a distance at which his speed has carried well in the past (8 wins and 8 second-place finishes).
#5 Awesome Image notched a win here on May 27, making him the best fit for these conditions. He finished second at this level last time out after pressing a very fast pace, leaving the rest of the field 6+ lengths behind at the finish.
Race 2. $8,000 N3L Claimer. 6 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #5 Point Hope, 9-5
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Bet Rationale: According to the parameters in The Punter’s Tale, there are no serious red flags here. We recommend not betting against this favorite.
Race 3. $25,000 Maiden Claimer (2-year-olds). 4.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #1 Rocky Jack, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Bet Rationale: According to the parameters in The Punter’s Tale, there are no serious red flags here. We recommend not betting against this favorite.
Race 4. $5,000 Maiden Claimer. 1 mile. Dirt
Favorite: #5 Discreet Demons, 6-5
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Bet Rationale: Although Discreet Demons is 0 for 17 lifetime and likely the weakest “legitimate” favorite of the day, we’ll pass the race. Her drop to the bottom ranks is long overdue, and her stretchout to a mile makes sense, given her lack of sprint speed.
Race 5. $7,500 Optional Claimer. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #6 Blowing Bayou, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Bet Rationale: According to the parameters in The Punter’s Tale, there are no serious red flags here. We recommend not betting against this favorite.
Race 6. $15,000 N2L Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #5 Finished My P H D, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE. Strongest Favorite of the Day.
Suggested Bets: Place bet on #5 Finished My P H D.
Bet Rationale: We see Finished My P H D as the strongest favorite on the Saturday card. We expect these types to finish first or second at least 75% of the time.
Race 7. $15,000 Optional Claimer. 1 mile. Dirt
Favorite: #5 All American Hero, 2-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Bet Rationale: According to the parameters in The Punter’s Tale, there are no serious red flags here. We recommend not betting against this favorite.
Race 8. $2,500 N1Y/N4L Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #6 More Honor, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Bet Rationale: According to the parameters in The Punter’s Tale, there are no serious red flags here. We recommend not betting against this favorite.
STATISTICS FOR EMERALD DOWNS FALSE FAVORITE REPORTS
False Favorites: 7 (This is the fourth Emerald Downs report)
False-Favorite Win %: 14 (1 winners in 7 races)
Alternative-Bet Win %: 71 (5 winners in 7 races)
Place Bet of the Day Win %: 100 (1 for 1); (ROI 5%: $100 bet, $105 returned)
OVERALL ROI: +35% ($800 bet and $1,080 returned)
