OVERALL GOALS AND WAGERING STRATEGY
We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). Following up on the success of that video series, we offer these False-Favorite Reports.
The Punter’s Tale explains how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders. We expect to see false favorites we identify lose at a rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Place bet as explained below) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses. For illustration purposes in the video series, we use a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race and dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a long-term 50% win rate, accept odds of 8-5 or higher. If the odds on one horse drop below 8-5, treat that horse as a legitimate favorite and don’t bet against it. Instead, bet only on that horse, using $40Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched and you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, assume that horse is a false favorite and continue with your wager as described in the steps above.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, wager $100 to Place on the strongest favorite on the card.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
Belmont Park
Saturday, June 19, 2021
This week we attempt to repair the damage suffered in our first two Belmont reports.
Race 1. $30,000 N2L Claimer. 1-1/16th miles. Turf (analysis and suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #2 Sengekontacket, 3-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against. In this race Sengekontacket takes a respectable and often productive drop from a nonclaiming event back to a claimer. With a recent win and strong connections, she’s a bit too legit to take a stand against.
Race 2. Allowance N1X. 1-1/16th mile. Dirt
Favorite: #6 Yankee Division, 8-5
Favorite Type: FALSE (Falling Knife; repeated failure at this level).
Suggested Bets: #1 Johnny Sack (10-1) and #3 Arham
Bet Rationale: As his name suggests, Yankee Division dominates NY state-bred allowance company. Despite racking up 3 wins in his last 5 tries vs. state-breds, he’s 0 for 4 against stakes and open allowance company. His past 2 attempts at this level resulted in him giving up clear leads and finishing 2 or more lengths behind the winners. The switch from Aqueduct to Belmont’s summer meet is unlikely to give him the class relief he needs.
#1 Johnny Sack registered two fast works prior to his first try off a short layoff. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart excels with horses running for the second time off a layoff, trying a route race for the second time and competing in allowance company. Questions about his pedigree and class level will leave him at longish odds on the toteboard. It seems like a bargain play.
#3 Arham showed that turf racing isn’t his strong suit in his most recent start. He sizzled in his debut in a Gulfstream sprint even though his pedigree begs for more distance. He gets a solid turf conditioner, followed by a sharp work and a return to the rider who rode him to victory in his debut.
Race 3. $80,000 Optional Claimer N2x. 7 furlongs. Turf (analysis and suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #2 Flower Point, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 4. $50,000 Starter Allowance. 1-1/16th mile. Turf (analysis and suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #2 Ocean Air, 3-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None.
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 5. $12,500 Claimer. 6 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #9 Combination, 1-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE. Strongest favorite on the card.
Suggested Bets: Place bet on #9 Combination
Bet Rationale: With 8 wins in 11 tries in 2020, Combination looks ultra-reliable. He’s managed only 2 second-place finishing in two tries this year, but that adds up to 10 winning place bets in his past 13 races. Trainer Atras excels with horses coming off a layoff.
Race 6. NY Stallion Stakes. 7 furlongs. Turf (analysis and suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #10 Ava’s Grace, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: Even though this looks like a competitive field, no red flags jump out at us here. Ava drops from a Grade 3 second-place finish to a restricted state-bred stakes race. She also returns to one-turn racing, which should help her stretch her speed to the wire.
Race 7. $40,000 Claimer. 1-1/16th mile. Turf (analysis and suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #5 Attentive, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: After a close-up second-place finish, Attentive takes the tiniest of class drops while getting the services of the rider (Rosario) who last won with him. Trainer Michael Maker keeps him well above the level of his recent claim, suggesting he still holds high hopes for this newcomer to his stable.
Race 8. $50,000 Starter Allowance. 1 mile. Dirt.
Favorite: #6 Risk Profile, 2-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 9. NY Stallion Stakes. 7 furlongs. Turf (analysis and suggested bets for turf only)
Favorite: #13 Step Dancer, 3-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE.
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 10. $25,000 State-Bred Maiden Claimer. 6 furlongs. Dirt.
Favorite: #12 Maria’s Gift, 7-2
Favorite Type: FALSE (Mustachioed Wife; 5 failures at this level)
Suggested Bets: #1 Lady Normandy (9-2) and #8 Idalisa (20-1)
Bet Rationale: Maria’s Gift found new hope traveling 6 furlongs after four tries at a mile. For the first time in her career, she didn’t lose ground in the stretch. However, she just about as slow through her final furlong as she usually does. Trainer Handal didn’t see it as improved condition: he put her on the self for 30+ days.
The alternatives are weak and worrisome, but at least they offer a better potential return.
#1 Lady Normandy enjoyed her first stroll at this level, stalking the leaders and finishing second. This lightly raced competitor appears to be on the improve.
#8 Idalisa flashed speed in her debut and recently posted a nice 5-furlong drill. She owns two of the best workouts showing among this dreadful dozen.
STATISTICS FOR PAST BELMONT “FALSE FAVORITE REPORTS”
False Favorites: 4 (This is the third report)
False Favorite Win %: 750 (3 for 4)
Races with Alt Bet Winners (%): 0 (0 for 4)
Alternative Bet Return vs. False Favorites
(based on $100 hypothetical Dutching in $10 increments):
$400 Win bets = $0 return
Legitimate Favorite Place Bets: 2 for 2
(You can buy a copy of The Punter’s Tale at lazybettorUSA.com to check out data and details about false-favorite categories such as the Mustachioed Wife, Falling Knife and Piper’s Fife.)
