We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). Following up on the success of that video series, we offer these False-Favorite Reports.
The Punter’s Tale explains how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders. We expect to see false favorites we identify lose at a rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Place bet as explained below) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses. For illustration purposes in the video series, we use a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race and dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a long-term 50% win rate, accept odds of 8-5 or higher. If the odds on one horse drop below 8-5, treat that horse as a legitimate favorite and don’t bet against it. Instead, bet only on that horse, using $40Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched and you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, assume that horse is a false favorite and continue with your wager as described in the steps above.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, wager $100 to Place on the strongest favorite on the card.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
Race 1. $20,000 Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #2 Capital Expense, 5-2
Favorite Type: FALSE. Mustachioed Wife (See The Punter’s Tale for details.)
Suggested Bets: #4 Bullet Drill (3-1) and #5 Wheel Rally (7-2).
Bet Rationale: Capital Expense has been a long-time revenue drain for his backers at Emerald Downs, with just 2 wins in 29 starts. He also shows 0 wins beyond 2 furlongs since 2019 or maybe longer.
Bullet Drill comes into his 2021 debut off a series of strong 5-furlong works. The recent 3-furlong breeze suggests the trainer is satisfied with the horse’s conditioning. Bullet Drill returned to Emerald last year off a layoff and at this distance and racked up consecutive wins.
Wheel Rally also returns to Emerald off a layoff. He, too, won his 2020 Emerald debut off a layoff at a similar class level. He’s logged five fast workouts since late April and gets the leading rider to manage the trip.
Race 2. $5,000 Maiden Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #4 Bode’s Best, 6-5
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 3. $15,000 N3L Claimer. 5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #6 Suddenly Awesome, 2-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 4. $5,000 N2L Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #5 Sale’ Y Vale, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 5. $40,000 Optional Claimer N$Y. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #4 Papa’s Golden Boy, 2-1
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 6. $5,000 Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #1 Judicial, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: Place bet on Judicial
Bet Rationale: Judicial earns our “most solid favorite of the day” designation. That means she qualifies for our Place Bet Strategy.
Race 7. $20,000 Claimer. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #7 Stay in Grace, 5-2
Favorite Type: LEGITIMATE
Suggested Bets: None
Bet Rationale: The “legitimate favorite” designation does not mean we view the favorite as unbeatable. It simply means we don’t see weaknesses severe enough to warrant a bet against.
Race 8. $8,000 Maiden Claimer. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt
Favorite: #5 Brothers, 5-2
Favorite Type: FALSE. Falling Knife (See The Punter’s Tale for details.)
Suggested Bets: #1 Atta Boy Billy (3-1) and #6 House of Lords (6-1)
Bet Rationale: Brothers is an $85,000 yearling purchase now entered for a mere $8,000. Hopes for him must’ve been high last year when he finished third at the MSW level. But that effort was followed by a year-long layoff and an abysmal tenth-place finish. When returning on May 20 after yet another long layoff, Brothers was dropped to the $25,000 level and once again finished last. The drastic plunge to $8,000 here indicates the stable’s hopes for this horse are quickly vanishing.
#1 Atta Boy Billy found a new running style last time out, closing from far back to finish second in a 5-furlong contest at this class level. The added distance and the more patient style should result in further improvement.
#6 House of Lords improved drastically when dropped to this level last time out. His slow-footedness out of the gate has left him far short of the winner’s circle, but a blistering 4-furlong workout on May 16 (in :46 flat) might produce improved early speed in his 2021 debut.
STATISTICS FOR EMERALD DOWNS FALSE FAVORITE REPORTS
False Favorites: 2 (This is the second Emerald Downs report)
False Favorite Win %: 0 (0 winners in 2 races)
Alternative Bet Win %: 100 (2 winners in 2 races)
Alternative Bet ROI: +66% ($200 bet and $332 returned)
