SATURDAY, March 5, 2022
This report’s primary purpose mirrors that of our book The Punter’s Tale: correctly identifying false favorites. Our goal is to bet into races where favorites win only 20% of the time or less.
With that accomplished, we can achieve a long-term positive ROI by betting against them. We suggest betting 2 horses against these false favorites. In each case split your bet so that most of it lands on your lower-odds choice.
Our research from 33 weeks of using this approach shows that our suggested lower-odds horses win more often and produce a higher ROI. Odds between 8-5 and 7-2 is the range in which we recorded the highest ROI. (See the “Optimizing IVH” article.)
We have two tracks for Saturday:
- Gulfstream Park
- Fair Grounds
GULFSTREAM PARK (Saturday, March 5, 2022)
RACE 7. 1 mile Turf. 3yo stakes (Bets are for turf only.)
False Favorite: #6 Royal Spirit (5-2)
Reason: Grade 3 placing at GP last time no faster than typical MSW. Lost ground in stretch all 4 tries at a mile or longer.
Bets
#1 Credibility (6-1). One of two entries for trainer Mark Casse. He has underrated turf jockey Edwin Gonzalez aboard. Late-closing style should play well in a race full of early speed
#4 Main Event (5-1). The theme here again is patient turf jockey who will wait for early speedsters to fade. This horse won on the lead last time, but comments note Jose Ortiz had him well reserved. Looks like he can improve.
RACE 9. 1 mile Turf. Grade 3 for fillies and mares. (Bets are for turf only.)
False Favorite: #7 Alms 7-2.
Reason: This mare hasn’t won a race in over 2 years. A graded stakes win seems like an unlikely spot for a breakthrough. She’s 0 for 3 at this distance since her last win. Also, she has never defeated older horses.
Bets
#5 Bipartisanship (5-1). With 2 late-closing wins in the past 4 races, she looks to be talented, improving, and able to employ the right style in another turf race full of speed.
#9 In Italian (8-1). While most of her rivals have reached Grade 3 as a ceiling, this lightly raced filly might be using a Grade 3 as a springboard to better races. Her front-running style isn’t ideal, but she might prove either more versatile or talented than her foes.
BONUS ANALYSIS: RACE 12, THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES
Although we see #2 Simplification as the legitimate favorite here, one longshot deserves mention. At morning-line odds of 15-1, #7 A.P.’s Secret should perform above expectations.
Some horses win with the lead because they’re able to take a midrace breather. For horses traveling a mile or more, that often means midrace fractions slowing from 24 seconds and change to 25 seconds or slower. With that short bit of relief, the frontrunner can find a kick in the stretch sufficient to hold off closers.
A look at some interior fractions reveals the relative quality of frontrunners in the FOY:
Simplification (1 mile at GP):
4-furlongs in :45.4 and then a turn time of :24.0. Final time:1:35.0.
A.P.’s Secret (1 mile at GP):
4 furlongs in :46.1 and then a turn time of :24.2. Final time of 1:35.2
In Due Time (1 mile at GP):
4 furlongs in :45.3 and then a turn time of :25.0. Final time: 1:35.4
Dean Delivers (7 furlongs at GP):
4 furlongs in :45.0 and then a turn time of :25.0. Final (projected): 1:36.2
You can see how Simplification and A.P.’s Secret run fast early and fast mid race. Most importantly they also run faster than their current rivals late in the race despite working harder than them early. Very impressive!
We’ll be using both of these horses in our exotics, with Simplification on top in most bets.
FAIR GROUNDS (Saturday, March 5, 2022)
RACE 6. 1 mile 1/16th turf stakes. (Bets are for turf only.)
False Favorite: #7 Dowagiac Chief (8-5).
Reason: Both turf wins came with easy leads in slow-paced races. He has failed twice trying to move into stakes company off those wins.
Bets
#2 Tommy Bee (7-2). Has run 3 good races since donning blinkers. Like the post, tactical speed and consistency. The trainer/jockey combo (33%) isn’t bad, either.
#5 Iberville (5-1). Another with a nice tracking style and good connections. Looks ready to live up to his pedigree.
What-If Scenarios
- Turf analysis is valid only if the race remains on the turf.
- If one alternative horse in a listed race is scratched, we recommend a Win/Place bet on our remaining horse.
- If one alternative horse is bet below 8-5, consider skipping the race or playing only that horse. Because we’re looking to cash on 50% of these races, we suggest single-horse bets be made Win/Place (with twice as much money to place).
