Lazy Bettr Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, November 17, 2023

Last weekend’s RTSS reports produced 3 winners in 5 races. We’ll try to duplicate that performance this week.


RACE 2. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $30,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Aula (5-2).

Reason: This 0-for-7 runner has never been within 5 lengths of the leader at the top of the stretch and has never finished within 4 lengths of the winner. He takes his first drop to this level, but he has been dusted by NY-breds just one tiny level above this. On top of all that, he was destined to be a turf router. So a one-turn elongated sprint might not play to his late-starting ways.


#5 Dudley Dickerson (3-1). He competed well against open company at Parx. Prior to that he just missed beating NY breds at the $40,000 level. He appears to be a fit horse in a perfect spot.

#6 Watch Hill (4-1). Michael Maker’s lightly raced entrant makes his second start off a long layoff. And he does so with two solid works since last raced. Maker wins at a 20% rate with horses going sprint to route, and he has a positive ROI with that move. Franco aboard adds to the appeal with his 23% win rate in routes.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

RACE 6. Tepin Stakes. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #3 Memorialize (5-2).

Reason: This Gainesway filly likes to take her time to get rolling. Although that’s not a bad style for the turf, it left her out of the running in her graded stakes try last time. The class drop might not be sufficient in this competitive field, and the shorter distance might also play against her.


#2 Living Magic (4-1). This Justify filly is 3 for 6 lifetime and has won at various distances and on three different surfaces. Her first two-turn race came in a turf stakes, and she prevailed easily. Her winning time was faster than the winning time for the Grade 2 Grillo Stakes that occurred earlier in October on the same track.

#5 Brocknardini (5-1). This NY-bred son of Palace Malice owns two commanding wins in three starts, including a turf stakes win at Laurel. Irad was aboard for his debut win and returns to ride here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.


RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Survival Rose (5-2).

Reason: She drops just one level after barely participating in her two most recent starts.


#1 Austrian Kitty (5-1). Debuts for a trainer who wins at a 24% clip with debut horses in maiden claimers.

#5 Good Magic Woman (10-1). After getting bumped at the start in her debut, she drops in from the $25,000 level. She showed some zip in morning works, and it wouldn’t take much more than that to pop to the lead.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.