Lazy Bettor Guides Unpuzzles the Preakness

Early Voting result predicted in RTSS subscriber service

After falling a length shy of notching our 6th winner in the past 9 years in the Kentucky Derby, Lazy Bettor Guides uncovered great value in the Preakness. We reserved our pick for Racetrack Super Scout (RTSS) subscribers and delivered an analysis of the Preakness that was so prescient we’re bound to win an award from the Psychic Friends Network!

Our Preakness preview accomplished the following:

  • Painted an accurate picture of the pace setup
  • Defined the key shortcoming of race-favorite Epicenter that would lead to his defeat
  • Predicted a win by Early Voting, and noted that odds of 7-2 presented value
  • Identified the top three horses in the race, who filled the trifecta in our order of preference

Here’s a sampling from the report:

  • Epicenter has run :47.0 or faster to the 4-furlong mark twice, and twice he was nailed by a longshot at the wire….. In short, we see Epicenter stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he duels, he becomes vulnerable to a late runner. If he sits back, he gives Early Voting a midrace breather and a head-start turning for home.
  • A patient approach by Epicenter, which is what we expect to see, will leave Early Voting as either the lone speed or controlling speed. The two other early runners, Fenwick and Armagnac, were left in the dust in their graded stakes tries. They present no challenge for Early Voting, who carved out above-average fractions in the Wood Memorial.
  • If Early Voting is a Grade 1 horse, he won’t surrender an early advantage again. He’s more mature and fit than 6 weeks ago. Add a pace advantage to that, and we’ll take him at 7-2 over the favorite.
  • Creative Minister put up a superb winning time last time out in only his third lifetime start…. He’s likely the best of the late runners.

In addition to nailing down the Preakness, our two RTSS false-favorite reports for the weekend delivered 5 winners in 8 races. This rate of success is no fluke. Our annual Kentucky Derby Previews emphatically backed most Derby winners from 2014 onward. Here’s a quick look back at our view of past winners:

  • “American Pharoah’s overall figures are clearly the best. The 92/92 pace profile places his Arkansas Derby win among the top 5 prep-race performances on dirt since 2000. And he achieved that without ever being hustled or shown the whip.”
  • “Nyquist owns another significant similarity with Barbaro…. Their fractions and running positions were nearly identical at every call in their Florida Derby wins. That makes Nyquist, at least in his final prep, equivalent to or better than [Barbaro]….. Replays show Nyquist ticked off these fractions with far greater ease than Barbaro did. Barbaro was all out to win by less than a length. In comparison Nyquist looked like he was taking a walk in the park.”
  • “Always Dreaming defeated 20-plus opponents by a total of 20 lengths in his most recent three races. His Florida Derby win blew the screws off the timers, ringing in as the fastest Florida Derby since the Spanish-American War…. He toys with his rivals early and just about flies away from them late. The heightened competition in the Florida Derby didn’t alter that pattern a bit.”
  • “[Compared to Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah] Justify enters the Kentucky Derby with the largest pace-superiority gap over his opponents: a four-length early pace advantage over his next fastest rival. It’s unlikely that any entrant in this year’s race will tire him out early…. No caveats. No asterisks. Accept odds as low as 2-1 on Justify if they’re offered.”

That’s a sampling of our success in Triple Crown contests over the past 9 years. We bring this level of insight to subscribers every week in the Racetrack Super Scout. Subscribe today and see thoroughbred racing in a new and clarifying light.