Lazy Bettor Guides RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, December 1, 2023

A perfect 6 for 6 last weekend, with all 6 false favorites losing! The RTSS reports also picked three winners in those 6 races.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $20,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Growth Mindset (5-2).

Reason: He’s 0 for 8 and has never finished in the money. Since he started racing for his current trainer, Juan Bernardini, he has gone from slow to slower in the early stages of his three races and he has lost ground from midrace to the finish every time.

BETS

#1 Elevated Causeway (3-1). He outfinished today’s rival No Surrender in a Laurel turf race, so he gets the nod among the late runners. The class drop should help. As for the surface switch to dirt, cross your fingers.

#5 Golden Purchase (6-1). He became competitive last time out in his second try at this level. The stretchout to a mile seemed to suit him. A repeat of that effort might be good enough against this very weak cast.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Elevated Causeway (3-1), 84 (turf)
  • #4 No Surrender (5-1), 83 (turf)
  • #5 Golden Purchase (6-1), 71

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 1. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $10,000. 5.5 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Flash It Wide Open (3-1).

Reason: She’s a debut runner from a barn that does well in that scenario. But we like to bet that a debuting favorite will get some things wrong.

BETS

#6 Dark Skyer (8-1). Corale Richards is owner and trainer. It looks like he gave this modestly bred runner a few practice runs in MSW company to protect her from a claim until she was ready to deliver a payday for Corale.

#8 Emilyhasherturn (7-2). She seems to be a disappointment for her connections. The $24,000 purchase price and three MSW tries suggest optimism that has now faded. But the workouts since her September 2 race have been long and regular. By adding blinkers, Justin Jeansonne signals that he’s trying all he can to grab a win at a level more in line with the horse’s limited talent.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 2. Claiming $5,000 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Khozy Tap (3-1).

Reason: Four of his eight races were at 5.5 furlongs or shorter, and his only win came in a 5-furlong race. He takes a huge class plunge off of a long layoff, so he likely has even more problems now as he tries to last for 6 furlongs.

BETS

#2 Purrfect Moon (8-1). He owns a second, third and fourth place finish at this level. He might be out of this condition if his close-up second-place run hadn’t been around two turns. It looks like something went horribly wrong last time, so we’ll bet he returns to his usual competitive self on the class drop.

#5 Be Bo (7-2). His repeated flash-and-fade failures at this level are a huge negative. But this field looks weak and his only win came after a layoff much like this one. It looks like the most ideal scenario he’s likely to see.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 Be Bo (7-2), 74
  • #4 Jessica Blah Blah (4-1), 70
  • #2 Purrfect Moon (8-1), 68