Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, September 2, 2023

Friday’s RTSS report delivered one short-priced winner (and the cold exacta) in three races. One false favorite was scratched, and the other two lost.

Today we take a stand against the morning-line favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.


RACE 10. Allowance N1x. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: I’m Very Busy (7-2).

Reason: This modestly bred runner from the Chad Brown barn gets Lasix, blinkers and Irad Ortiz. We think he’ll also need an outboard motor. His gate troubles, lack of early and tactical speed and tepid late kick will leave him short of victory again.


#8 Internal Capital (9-2). This Chad Brown entrant shows the fewest failures at this level. He also seems more likely to be favorably positioned. With Brown winning nearly 30% of the time with horses running second off a layoff,  we see more value with this runner than with Brown’s morning-line favorite.

#10 So High (10-1). As the owner of the highest BRIS speed figure, he offers big value. He hasn’t won since 2021, but the drop from graded stakes races into a weak allowance field might do the trick.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #10 So High (10-1), 99
  • #1 Danzigwiththestars (6-1), 89
  • #4 Ruse (8-1), 88

RACE 11. GRADE 1 JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP. 1 Mile and 1/4. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Rattle N Roll (9-5).

Reason: His multiple late-charging wins in stakes races all came against allowance-level horses. He might not have much more to beat in this weak rendition of the JC Gold Cup, but his slow winning times leave him highly vulnerable.


#1 Proxy (2-1). Something went wrong two races ago, when he faced Rattle N Roll in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. He has won 3 of his past 6 races and battled much better horses than Rattle N Roll. He appears to be a late bloomer, with his best races possibly ahead of him.

#8 Bright Future (6-1). This son of Curlin owns three blowout wins in six career starts, but he’s 0 for 1 in stakes races. Since his July 21 victory here at Saratoga, he has worked four times, suggesting that Pletcher has been pointing him to this race. Javier Castellano has quite a bit of tactical speed and pedigree power to work with.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Proxy (2-1) 104
  • #7 Duke of Love (15-1), 100
  • #8 Bright Future (6-1), 100
  • #6 Tyson (5-1), 99