Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, November 26, 2022

We hope you enjoyed our complete dismissal of morning-line favorite Rich Strike in the Grade 1 Clark yesterday, as well as the resulting winning exacta! And we trust you cashed on our 2 winners in the 4 races covered!

No rest for the wickedly brave. We’re back at Aqueduct and Churchill on Saturday.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 3. Claiming $40,000. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Customerexperience (7-2).

Reason: Her last win came nearly a year ago at one level lower. Her most recent race at one level higher was marked by a 10-length stretch fade. She seems less than fit and over her head.

BETS

#8 Baba (4-1). If you go by lengths beaten, she looks to be trending down. However her raw 6-furlong split last time was a big improvement over her first try off the layoff. Rudy Rodriguez doesn’t panic here by dropping her to the $20k level he claimed her at. Instead, he offers her for a tag for the first time since the claim and does so at a much higher level.

#2 Hydra (4-1). This Finger Lakes shipper is nearly undefeated at Aqueduct. Dylan Davis, who rode her to victory twice here, takes the mount again.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 Baba (4-1), 91
  • #2 Hydra (4-1), 90
  • #1 Juxtapose (8-1), 85

CHURCHILL DOWNS

RACE 5. Maiden Special Weights. 1 mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #9 Spielman (7-2).

Reason: When the track came up sloppy last time, he finally ran a decent race. Still, he started slowly and never threatened the winner, even while finishing second. He’s bred to do well around two turns, but he lost ground in the stretch in all 4 lifetime starts. He seems likely to again run evenly at best.

BETS

#7 Point Proven (5-1). He improved greatly in his second trip to post when donning blinkers for the first time. The potent Pletcher/Saez combo seems like a good bet to guide this runner to an even better effort.

#6 Regimental (12-1). This runner has been training superbly after a substandard debut on turf. As a son of English Channel and a Tapit mare, Regimental should love the added distance. Trainer George Arnold is having a great meet and excels with horses stretching out and with horses making their second start.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #10 Endpoint (9-2), 79
  • #2 Escapologist (5-1), 78
  • #7 Point Proven (5-1) 75