Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, November 25, 2023

The RTSS false-favorite identifications logged another perfect day, going 3 for 3 on Friday. We also picked a winner that paid $8.80.

Subscribers betting the example $40 per race ($120 total) collected $176 on that winner because the other RTSS pick was scratched. The upset winners in our three featured races paid $7.80, $8.80 and $21.40. That’s a pretty good illustration of the value you can find when correctly identifying a false favorite.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 2. Claiming $25,000 N2L. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Ice Road (7-5).

Reason: His highly competent owner/trainer combo went to great lengths to keep this colt out of claiming races, tolerating five consecutive losses in starter allowances. Normally, I’d respect the class drop here, but it comes after this runner turned in his worst two races under Jose D’Angelo. One of those flops came after a layoff, suggesting an unresolved physical issue. All in all, then, the drop appears to be negative.

BETS

#1 Disappearance (3-1). He appears to be fit as can be and placed at the right class level.

#6 Blame D Rule Maker (9-2). The class drop last time served him well. Not only did he finish a game second, but he found a level that allows him to get into the race much earlier.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Disappearance (3-1), 83
  • #6 Blame D Rule Maker (9-2), 82

RACE 3. Claiming $16,000 N2L. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 K D Kakes (2-1).

Reason: This 1-for-9 bottom dweller has never crossed the finish line first. She broke her maiden at the lowest state-bred claiming level via a DQ. After a claim on her was voided in June, she was shelved until October. That one-race fall campaign saw her finish fifth of six (and end up needing another vacation). She seems quite wobbly to us.

BETS

#4 Afilada (5-2). She takes only her second crack at this level, and she does so for a trainer hitting with 20% of his horses first time after a claim. The long layoff is a negative, but she has been working long and strong for Charlton Baker.

#7 Mouly (6-1). She switches from turf routes to a dirt sprint. She shows an abundance of early speed in routes, so she should be able to stay close to the early pace and outlast her rivals late.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Afilada (5-2), 75
  • #7 Mouly (6-1), 75
  • #2 Shasi (4-1), 71

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 8. Maiden Special Weights. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Break Out (7-5).

Reason: Although he has finished second twice in his two-race career, both efforts came in weak races and he didn’t threaten the winner either time. He’s a grinding type who’ll likely be best at this mile distance or longer, but he’s probably over his head classwise. Saffie Joseph’s top jockey Zayas rides his other entrant.

BETS

#1 Rapture Bay (4-1). He ships in off of a sharp turf effort at Laurel. The pair of 10-horse fields he’s faced in his 2-race career up north were likely tougher challenges than what he faces here. This $180,000 son of Flatter is trained by Jose Delgado, who wins 25% of the time with shippers.

#2 One Sharp Cookie (8-1). Edgar Zayas rides this “other” Saffie Joseph entrant. This runner flashed speed in his debut and, as a son of Sharp Azteca, will likely muster enough speed to get a clear early lead.

Alternate in case of scratch: #7 White Series (12-1).

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.