Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, November 12, 2022

Friday was a blast once again! All 3 false favs we identified went down to defeat. (The fourth one was scratched.) In the 4 races covered, we nabbed 2 winners from our recommended plays and a third winner as the only horse remaining on our speed-figure list when one of our top choices was scratched.

Let’s see if we can continue the streak at the same tracks on Saturday.


RACE 6. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $25,000. 6 furlongs.  Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Big Bean Christine (5-2).

Reason: She ran a decent race last time out, but she now has 5 losses at this purse level ($35,000) or lower. In 2 of her past 3 races she failed to win as the favorite.


#2 Bourbon Diversion (10-1). Her most recent run was a disaster, but the three works since then suggest the problem was only temporary. Her effort two races ago at $40,000 (81 speed figure) would be a winning effort here.

#3 Chiara (12-1). James Bond sets up this filly for a run at the bottom maiden level. As in the later race we cover, we see a surface switch with a class drop. Both are strong moves for Bond. The 73 speed figure is within range if Bourbon Diversion doesn’t pop an 81 again.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Bourbon Diversion (10-1), 81
  • #8 New York Supreme (3-1), 75
  • #3 Chiara (12-1), 73

RACE 9. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $25,000. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #10 Gracefully Wild (5-2).

Reason: After returning from a layoff of more than a year, this frail filly got 2 more layoffs in her past 3 races. She has disappointed as the favorite in 3 of her past 5 races, and she failed to win the two previous times she dropped down from $40,000 company.


#1 Fulgini (6-1). We can’t pass up the top BRIS speed figure at these type of odds. Trainer James Bond had a great summer at Saratoga and does well with layoff horses and horses switching from turf to dirt. Fulgini showed good early speed when last seen on dirt at a higher level. The return to dirt and drop in class should make her very competitive here.

#8 Bern Rosey Bern (4-1). She got leg weary when chasing a runaway winner the length of the stretch when dropped to this level for the first time. She should be plenty fit for her second shot at state-bred bottom feeders.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Fuligni (6-1), 80
  • #8 Bern Rosey Bern (4-1), 78
  • #5 Rent Control (8-1), 74


RACE 1. Claiming $8,000. 1 mile 1/16th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Justin’s Quest (2-1).

Reason: Although his two recent turf races, especially his runaway win, are very impressive, he hasn’t won a race on dirt since 2020. The claiming price is lower than in his recent races, but he leaves restricted company, which he didn’t exactly dominate on dirt.


#3 Rye Humor (5-1). He scored back-to-back wins at this distance at Churchill Downs last fall. While there are questions about his current form, the track, distance and class level all look perfect. If he can come back anywhere close to his 85 speed figure last year, he’ll find the winner’s circle again.

#4 Money for Mischief (3-1). After he logged a good effort off the layoff, his connections purposely ran him way over his head last time. He’s 2 for 9 at this distance and competitive at this level. He should be as fit as he can be in his third start off a layoff.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Rye Humor (5-1), 85
  • #4 Money for Mischief (3-1), 78
  • #5 Dr. Forman (7-2), 78

RACE 3. Maiden Special Weights, 2-year-old fillies. 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Ghostly Girl (7-2).

Reason: Her debut was impressive, as she missed by just a neck when competing at 7 furlongs at Churchill. The follow-up last time out was the opposite. After tracking the pace in fifth place, she backed up considerably down the stretch. You might want to draw a line through that bad race because she’s still learning how to race, but her debut might not be as impressive as it looks at first glance. Compare her 7-furlong debut on September 23 to the flat 1-mile race of #2 Bolt for Allison on September 17 (both on fast surfaces at Churchill):

  • Bolt for Allison, :23.1, :46.2, 1:12.0, 1:25.3
  • Ghostly Girl,    :23.3, :47.3, 1:12.2, 1:24.4

Bolt for Allison was faster early at every call, tracked a much faster pace at a longer distance, and (not surprisingly) tired late. Which effort deserves more respect? Did we see the limit of Ghostly Girl’s ability haunt her the next time out when she finished nearly 8 lengths behind the winner at Keeneland? Keep in mind that Ghostly Girl’s sire has a stud fee of less than $6,000 and her dam has produced 0 winners from 4 starters. There are lots of reasons to expect her to disappoint her backers.


#2 Bolt for Allison (5-1). She goes from turf to dirt after a sharp effort at 8.5 furlongs on grass. Trainer Chris Hartman hits 23% with horses switching from turf to dirt, and he improves his chances of upping that percentage by signing up Tyler Gaffalione to ride.

#8 Aisha R N (15-1). Steve Asmussen unveils this daughter of Mendelssohn off of 6 consecutive 5-furlong works. Her bullet work in :59.4 from the gate at Ellis Park suggests you get speed, athleticism and fitness to go with your double-digit odds.