Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, November 11, 2023

Whenever I get a new subscriber for the Racetrack Super Scout, I try to post the recommended betting strategy. Yesterday’s results played perfectly into that strategy.

Our data from the first year of RTSS showed that when one of our recommended selections gets bet down to 2-1 or less, you should bet only that horse. For example, assume you were betting $40 per race and splitting that $40 between our two picks. In the case of horses going off at 2-1 or less, you’d bet the entire $40 to win on the short-priced horse and bet $0 on our other choice. When the crowd agrees with RTSS, the horse is very live most of the time. (We prefer to skip all bets if one of the RTSS selections gets bet down to even money or less.)

Yesterday, the RTSS report picked 2 winners in 3 races. Both went off at 2-1 or less, so the strategy was to put your whole race bankroll on those winners. (BTW, all 3 favorites we pegged as false cooperated by losing.)


RACE 1. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $30,000. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Star Sequence (3-1).

Reason: As we’ve stated in past reports, we almost automatically bet against a debut horse lining up as the favorite. We see no reason to make an exception here. There’s nothing special about the pedigree, workouts or trainer proficiency with debut types.


#4 Running Lucky (6-1). This runner posted one of the fastest 4-furlong splits among the entrants here while finishing a game second. This field looks weaker than the race she ran in last time.

#5 The Delaware Boyz (9-2). This $105,000 purchase debuts with a $30,000 clearance-sale tag. Not good. However, trainer Dave Duggan has hit with 2 of 7 starters at this meet, with another finishing second. Somebody is leaving this low-percentage trainer with decent horses as they ship their better stock south for the winter. Or maybe Duggan has just been waiting for the big Boyz to leave town.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.


RACE 5. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Roar Ready (9-5).

Reason: We also like betting against favorites who show little or no early speed. This runner broke last in his debut and next to last in his second start. He went off at 33-1 last time out while losing by 10 lengths and returns as the favorite. We’re not buying into that deal.


#2 Fort Charles (6-1). He owns impressive works and debuts for a trainer with a positive ROI with MSW debut horses.

#10 Reef Runner (10-1). He broke alertly in his debut, dropped back and then passed some tired horses in the stretch. That sounds like a productive training run. Trainer David Fawkes wins at a 22% clip with horses making their second start.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.