Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, May 27, 2023

Two RTSS  winners in three races yesterday! The prices weren’t huge, but RTSS continues to be consistently rewarding.

We haven’t mentioned our recommended betting approach recently, so here it is for new subscribers:

  1. Bet two horses per race, overweighting one of our picks if the odds are significantly lower than the other pick. That is, you want to do more than Dutch your bets for an equal return on either selection. You should aim for a greater return on the lower-priced selection.
  2. If the odds on one RTSS selection fall below 2-1, bet only that selection.
  3. If one RTSS selection is scratched (or if you really don’t like one), choose an alternate selection from the “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list. Also consider horses on that list if you want more exacta or trifecta combos.

Don’t worry too much about false favorites that end up not being favored. Because we look for solid reasons to designate them as false (as proven out in “The Punter’sTale”), they still suck up more betting action than they deserve.


RACE 4. Optional Claimer $62,500 N1x. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Winters Lion (2-1).

Reason: After three dull efforts in nongraded turf stakes races for 3-year-olds, this colt returns to dirt. His final dirt try of 2022 was a runaway win in the Oaklawn slop. But we see this $35,000 purchase as a horse likely to struggle against nonclaimers at Belmont. Other than his victory in the slop, he really hasn’t come close to beating anyone on any surface.


#4 Alternate Reality (4-1). As the owner of the top speed figure, he just needs to repeat his most recent effort. That strong late rally and open-lengths victory suggest a move up is well within his range.

#6 Smooth Flyin Mike (7-2). As the only true early speedster, he seems likely to gain the lead. His figures need to improve, but a soft pace and a patient ride by Jose Ortiz give him a strong chance of rising to the challenge.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Alternate Reality (4-1), 87
  • #3 Warrior Richard (9-2), 85
  • #6 Smooth Flyin Mike (7-2), 83

RACE 6. Optional Claimer $62,500 N2x. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Vittorio (8-5).

Reason: He has failed at this level five times, at three different tracks.


#1 Colonel Bowman (5-2). With one powerful performance after another this year, the Colonel looks like the horse to beat. He keeps the services of Irad Ortiz, further adding to his appeal.

#5 Majority Partner (5-2). This Linda Rice trainee seldom puts in a bad effort. He’s been working superbly and looks ready to fire another big effort.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Colonel Bowman (5-2), 100
  • #5 Majority Partner (5-2), 100
  • #2 Happy Farm (9-2), 95


RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 5.5 Furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #1 Lieutenant Stan (5-2).

Reason: This Mark Casse colt exemplifies the “Falling Knife” type of false favorite that I define in “The Punter’s Tale.” His drop from decent tries in MSW company to a Maiden Optional Claimer should’ve produced a topnotch effort. Instead, he ran 7th as the 2-1 favorite and then was dropped into a maiden claimer. The betting public was certain that drop would produce a win and bet him down to 9-5. His 5-length collapse in the stretch lands him here, with a 50% cut in claiming price. Care to reach out and catch this falling knife?


#6 Mexicoffee (3-1). The class drop here makes sense for this modestly bred runner. After a few even efforts, he gets the class relief he probably needs to be a more significant player. And he gets that drop with a sharp workout signaling readiness.

#9 Jay’s Delight (6-1). This speedster was overmatched at higher levels. Although he’ll face a few committed early runners, he won’t have to work as hard to stay on top. That should help him last 5 furlongs.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.