Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, May 13, 2023

Just 1 winner in 4 races yesterday, even though 3 of 4 false favorites lost. We’ll start our climb back toward profitability with the Peter Pan Stakes and a few other races at Belmont Park and Gulfstream Park.


RACE 2. Allowance N1x. 7 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #8 Bold Journey (2-1).

Reason: Although he owns a pedigree that suggests he’ll like racing on grass, this runner has had to wait 13 races to be given a shot. And it’s not like he was performing so superbly on dirt that they had to keep him there. He also shows stretch fades in all races longer than 6 furlongs, except when walking home in midpack in :13.3 seconds last time. Lots of questions loom with this one at a short price.


#2 Paros (6-1). The dirt-to-turf maneuver isn’t one of Linda Rice’s strongest tactics, but other factors have us leaning toward backing this runner. He has finished his winning efforts, against top-level claiming types, with awesome final furlongs. Also, the Rice and Jose Ortiz combo win at nearly a 50% clip.

#9 Ohtwoohthreefive (5-2). The best race of his career came at this approximate level and distance at Saratoga. That runnerup effort came after a layoff with a drop from a stakes race into allowance company, just like here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #9 Ohtwoohthreefive (5-2), 89
  • #5 Three Zero (12-1), 88
  • #2 Paros (6-1), 87

RACE 6. GRADE 3 PETER PAN STAKES. 1 Mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #9 Bishop’s Bay (8-5).

Reason: Although this son of Uncle Mo is 2 for 2 lifetime, he barely outfinished maidens and entry-level allowance foes at the Fair Grounds. He takes a big step up in class in what we suspect is a prep for the Belmont, a 2-turn marathon his pedigree is perfectly suited for.


#1 Arcangelo (10-1). Jena Antonucci doesn’t shoot for many graded stakes purses, so she must see something special in this son of Arrogate.  The outstanding winning time of 1:34.4 in his maiden score has us believing a step into the Big Leagues for him might work out.

#8 Henry Q (8-1). We’re tempted to make him a solo bet here. After blazing to victory in a minor stakes at Sunland, he got torched in a suicidal pace duel in the Sunland Derby. He looks to be the dominant speed in this event, and maybe even lone speed. His pedigree and performances to date make him a top contender, and the favorable pace scenario might make him unbeatable.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 Henry Q (8-1), 101
  • #7 Asmodeus (15-1), 98
  • #1 Arcangelo (10-1), 97

RACE 7. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $40,000. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #4 Your Mission (5-2).

Reason: Todd Pletcher gave up on this guy’s turf career by dropping him into a bottom-level maiden claimer on dirt. Anyone suspecting the horse had some problems was proven correct when Your Mission was sent to the bench for

nearly 4 months and then showed up in someone else’s barn. The move up in class seems overly optimistic and maybe just a test run to see what might be left in the tank.


#2 Barry the Builder (6-1). He fought well in early stages of his MSW tries. The class drop to face claimers for the first time should be all that he needs to hit the finish line first.

#7 Tunnel Vision (8-1). Michael Maker returns this runner to the level he claimed him at. The addition of Lasix in the presence of a very fast 4-furlong work gives the appearance of this race being the money run.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.


RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $16,000. 1 mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #4 A J’s Memory (9-5).

Reason: Hey, would anyone like to buy a $250,000 horse for $16,000? She’s offered for this bargain price even though she competed well at the $35,000 level. And if the connections were sure she’d perform better on turf, they wouldn’t be cutting the price in half.


#1 Kilkenny Bella (5-1). She’s 0 for 12, mostly at lower levels, but only two of those losses came on the turf. Her prior turf try was a sharp effort at the $20,000 level. She looks primed for a top effort on the class drop.

#6 Blue Twirlin (5-2). She drops to this level for the first time. When last seen on turf, she gained an open-lengths lead on $25,000 turf runners at Woodbine. She’s the one to catch.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Kilkenny Bella (5-1), 77
  • #6 Blue Twirlin (5-2), 72
  • #5 Connecting Flight (8-1), 71