Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, March 26, 2022

This report’s primary purpose mirrors that of The Punter’s Tale: A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits. We aim to identify false favorites, and to do that with 80% accuracy or better. That empowers you to bet into races where the morning-line favorite wins far less than usual.

We call this “Instant Value Handicapping” because, by accurately ruling out just one horse (the race favorite), you quickly unlock higher returns on winning wagers.

We base our analysis on the research for The Punter’s Tale, results from our “Instant Value Handicapping” videos on YouTube, and the accumulated results for the Racetrack Super Scout. You’re not paying just for mere opinions or unsupported biases. You’re paying for expert analysis based on hard evidence.

The Racetrack Super Scout isn’t designed to be a longshot system. Instead, we aim to provide you with a way to consistently cash tickets, help you avoid long losing streaks and assist you in compiling a positive return on investment. To that end, we recommend checking the subscribers’-only “Optimizing IVH” articles. They reflect our findings from ongoing data collection. The advice in these articles points you to the most effective way to wager on our expert picks.

This week we look at two tracks:

  • Gulfstream Park
  • Fair Grounds

GULFSTREAM PARK (Saturday, March 26, 2022)

RACE 2. Claiming $6,250. 5.5 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Town Classic (2-1).

Reason: This is the third time in his past 4 races a trainer has put him up for sale at a drop of 50% or more than he was claimed for. The negative drop here comes on the heels of back-to-back horrible races. Elevator going down?


#1 No Commission (5-2). He enters off a win at the $6,250 N3L level. He’s a one-run closer who took complete control at the 5-furlong mark of a 6-furlong race in fast time.

#3 Ask for Bode (3-1). He tired a bit after dueling through the fastest 5 furlongs of his career. His pace nemesis (Unpublished) returns for a rematch here, and that rival will likely fade badly again. Bode is the only early runner who can stalk and pounce, and holding off the closers looks like it might be easier this time around.

RACE 5. $12,500 N2L Claimer. 5 furlongs. All-Weather Surface.

False Favorite: #4 Drum and Drummer (5-2).               

Reason:  He’s 0 for 7 at this level and below. In 4 tries at 5.5 furlongs or shorter, he’s been on the lead or right beside the leader at the top of the stretch, and all 4 times he lost.


#2 Sky Bridge (8-1). He broke his maiden off a very long layoff by closing late at this abbreviated distance. The class move is reasonable, maybe even perfect for him. And the odds should stay at or above the morning line.

#10 Ruling Front (6-1). He takes a sneaky class drop, going from open $12,500 to nonwinners of two lifetime. He ran a solid third in fast time behind two good horses. He faces older horses for the first time, but they’re not very accomplished.

RACE 10. $12,500 N3L Claimer. 1 mile 70 yards. All-Weather Surface.

False Favorite: #10 Veloce (3-1).

Reason: After accounting for the differences between the Canadian dollar and US dollar, you can see this guy has lost 5 times at this level or lower. All of those losses were in 2-turn races on all-weather courses. He shows 4 starts from post 7 or wider and lost ground in the stretch all 4 times. With only 2 wins in 23 starts, he’s not the type of horse who overcomes adversity such as an outside post.


#3 Mack (6-1). He’s a late bloomer who made his debut as a 5-year-old and broke his maiden as a 5-year-old. His late start points to physical issues, but he’s versatile (he can either stalk or lead) and fits perfectly here. He’s also undefeated at this distance.

#9 Race Craft (9-2). He owns the best raw time at this distance by far. He returns to the appropriate level and surface for an underrated trainer.

FAIR GROUNDS (Saturday, March 26, 2022)

RACE 2. Maiden Special Weight. 1 mile and 1/16th. Turf. (Bets are recommended for turf only.)

False Favorite: #4 Mazuma (3-1).

Reason: Our morning-line favorite number 4 Mazuma has finished fourth three times in four lifetime starts. He’s a turfer who has never gained ground in the stretch. And his most recent race was his worst.


#3 Urban Recovery (8-1). The pedigree on this one is all turf. The dam has one turf winner from 3 starters, and Urban Recovery, in the capable hands of Cherie DeVaux, will almost certainly be her second turf winner soon. The workouts are nothing special, but someone paid 350% more than average for a colt out of this sire (Carpe Diem).

#7 Tepeu (8-1). Ignore his sprint debut on dirt. The surface, distance and jockey switches are all positive.


Legitimate Favorite: Epicenter (7-5).

I’ve been on the Epicenter bandwagon since before the Lecomte, but he needs to step up his game here. So far his pace and final times have been only slightly above average. I suspect some longshot will get brave and try to push the early fractions hard. Will that take the pep out of Epicenter’s final furlong? Or will Epicenter ward off a stronger early challenge and still be able to hold off the strong closers late?

I’m on the fence. I’ve bet Epicenter in two different futures pools and hope to see a true Grade 1 effort from him here. But his figures so far haven’t wowed me.

If Epicenter gets toasted early, #3 Call Me Midnight (6-1) should benefit just as he did in the Lecomte. He has been training exceptionally well for this.

The other longshot of interest is #5 Kupuna (8-1). He’s knocked heads with some above-average allowance types and owns a win and a placing in his pair of two-turn races. His recent races and workouts suggest Kupuna is a stakes-caliber horse on the improve.