Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, March 19, 2022

This report’s primary purpose mirrors that of The Punter’s Tale: A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits. We aim to identify false favorites, and to do that with 80% accuracy or better. That empowers you to bet into races where the morning-line favorite wins far less than usual.

We call this “Instant Value Handicapping” because, by accurately ruling out just one horse (the race favorite), you quickly unlock higher returns on winning wagers.

We base our analysis on the research for The Punter’s Tale, results from our “Instant Value Handicapping” videos on YouTube, and the accumulated results for the Racetrack Super Scout. You’re not paying just for mere opinions or unsupported biases. You’re paying for expert analysis based on hard evidence.

The Racetrack Super Scout isn’t designed to be a longshot system. Instead, we aim to provide you with a way to consistently cash tickets, help you avoid long losing streaks and assist you in compiling a positive return on investment. To that end, we recommend checking the subscribers’-only “Optimizing IVH” articles. They reflect our findings from ongoing data collection. The advice in these articles point you to the most effective way to wager on our expert picks.

This week we look at two tracks:

  • Gulfstream Park
  • Fair Grounds

GULFSTREAM PARK (Saturday, March 19, 2022)

RACE 1. A Mile and a Sixteenth. Turf. Maiden Claimer $35,000.

False Favorite: #2 Leopardi (3-1)

Reason: His debut was about as bad as imaginable. Rather than try a different surface, class level or other change, the trainer puts this $425,000 horse on the clearance rack.


#9 Carnivore (5-1). He gets much-needed class relief here and a positive jockey switch. Lanerie wins at a 23% rate for this stable.

#10 Irish King (7-2). Irad Ortiz keeps the mount for a very effective turf trainer. Irish King gained 5 lengths on the leaders in a sustained drive last time out, which was only his 2nd start. He looks fit and capable.

RACE 11. 7 Furlongs. Hutcheson Stakes.

False Favorite: #4 Nitrous Channel (7-5)

Reason: He has only a debut maiden win on his resume. That race didn’t give him the fastest pace or final time among his rivals today. In short, he lacks experience and doesn’t own the strongest figures.


#5 Provocateur  (3-1). He followed an impressive maiden victory with a strong placing in a 7-furlong stakes race at Tampa. The extra furlong proved a bit too much, but he sparkled for 6 fast panels. That race shows he belongs with stakes horses, and the cut back in distance seems like a big plus.

#7 Cattin (7-2). This guy is an actual stakes winner. He finished behind Provocateur last time out, but he shows a willingness to rate early and close late. That could prove to be a key talent if Nitrous and Provocateur knock heads early on.

FAIR GROUNDS (Saturday, March 19, 2022)

RACE 4. 6 Furlongs. Dirt. Maiden Claimer $20,000.

False Favorite: #5 Tee Burns (4-1).

Reason: The precipitous drop in class comes on the heels of his worst performance in 4 lifetime starts. It doesn’t look like a planned maneuver on the part of the horse’s trainer. Expect him to continue disappointing his backers.


#7 Speedy G (6-1). He was claimed off of a productive effort at this level 2 races ago. He then showed decent early speed vs. better horses. He comes back to the appropriate level.

#10 Loyal to the Game (5-1). He blasted through challenging fractions last time and held well for 2nd. The 3rd-place runner was nearly 6 lengths further back. Strong rider and trainer too!

RACE 5. 1 Mile and a Sixteenth. Turf. Claiming $17,500.

False Favorite: #4 Forever Mo (4-1).

Reason: Mo has spent most of the past year dropping in class and failing to win. The guy who claimed him for $40,000 gave him away for $17,500 and failed to grab the winner’s purse. His first race for the new trainer was atrocious. I suspect the class drop won’t fix what’s ailing this one.


#3 Indy Tourist (8-1). He was claimed off a sharp Turf try last time. He has back class and looks fit.

#6 Chantry Flats (5-1). He drops in class off sharp efforts followed by a long layoff, and that’s not good generally. But he loves this distance and the turf, and he’s in the capable hands of a 21% trainer.