Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, June 25, 2022

RTSS hit 2 winners in 4 races on Friday. We also had a 2-1 winner fill a $23 exacta with our other choice in the race at 6-1. All 4 false favorites identified yesterday lost. That’s 100% accuracy in identifying false favorites and a 50% hit rate in picking winners.

If you’re overweighting our picks as laid out in the RTSS First Quarter Review (and per the “Optimizing IVH” articles for subscribers), your bets yesterday would’ve looked like the following (for a $40 per race bankroll):

  • Belmont Race 8: Two 8-1 shots bet evenly. One placed. RETURN: $0
  • Gulfstream Race 5: $38 win on #1 Laniakea Storm (the winner) at 2-1, and $2 win on #8 Challenge Princess at 29-1. RETURN: $$121.60
  • Gulfstream Race 9: $30 win on #1 Sequin Lady (the winner) at 2-1, and $10 win on #2 Graceleadsushome at 6-1. RETURN: $90. ($1 exacta paid $23.)
  • Gulfstream Race 10: #4 Bella Miura scratched. $20 win on #12 Dali’s Heart. RETURN: $0

That’s $211 returned for $140 wagered. This approach continues to be a money-maker. Let’s keep it rolling again at Belmont and Gulfstream!

BELMONT PARK (Saturday, June 25, 2022)

RACE 6. Maiden Special Weights. 1 mile and 1/16th. Turf. (Analysis for turf only.)

False Favorite: #4 Vagaries (5-2).

Reason: Twice in 2 lifetime races Vagaries has been well positioned to make a successful stretch run. Twice she showed no late punch. A layoff, Lasix and Prat might produce a change of personality, but we’re betting they won’t.


#1 Chiromante (6-1). Brendan Walsh could’ve kept this horse at Churchill to shoot for a higher purse after her decent debut. Walsh has a win and a placing with 3 shippers to Belmont, so it might pay to take the view he knows which of his horses will do well here.

#6 With Bells On (4-1). She looks like the controlling speed, if not clear lone speed.


False Favorite: Brazillionaire (5-2).

Reason: We pegged him as a false favorite last weekend, and he lived down to that billing by running 3rd. He’s run competitively in 6 of his past 7 without winning. It’s hard to see him breaking the ice as he moves up in class.


#5 Vocalize (3-1). He competed well in MSW company and then blew away maiden claimers in his first try. The winning time was fast and his pedigree and back class suggest he can handle this small move up in class. Prat aboard should help.

#7 Cousin Andrew (7-2). It’s odd that Chad Brown never ran this $270,000 guy on turf before getting rid of him for $20,000. But Linda Rice looks determined to complete the turf experiment successfully. His first turf try against claimers was solid. Now he gets blinkers and a switch to the barn’s #1 jockey. He should be in top form in his third start off a layoff.

RACE 10. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 6 furlongs. Turf. (Analysis for turf only.)

False Favorite: #4 Sinfully Sweet (7-2).

Reason: He has come up short 4 times on the turf at this level. It looks like there will always be at least one horse better than he is until he drops in class.



We like #3 Quick Power Nap, but there are too many first-time starters and lightly raced horses to take a confident stand.

GULFSTREAM PARK (Saturday, June 25, 2022)

RACE 2. Claiming 12,500 N2L. 5 furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #2 Zamfir (8-5).

Reason: He shows 2 losses at this level, with bad stretch fades each time.


#4 Amor Lejano (4-1). He drops to this level for the first time. His workout line shows a blazing 4-furlong work on May 21 with 3 more works after. He ran well off of his last layoff when running over his head classwise.

#7 Heals the Soul (5-1). He got claimed by Sweezey, who hits 27% of the time when moving horses up 2 levels. He has shown an ability to blow away weak competition in the past.

RACE 7. Maiden Claiming $12,500. 5.5 furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #11 Legal Star (5-2).

Reason: He fits a common theme for this weekend’s false favorites: he has no early speed or late punch. He can’t last around 2 turns, and he can’t stay close enough to rally past sprinters late.


#6 Unique Time (8-1). He hopped at the start in his first try off a layoff and first try down at this level. That attempt came after a sharp series of works. He might be long gone with a clean break.

#8 Mud Bug (8-1). The workouts have been superb. He looks like he could grab the early lead in this paceless affair if Unique Time blows the start again.