Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, June 18, 2022

RTSS chalked up 2 winners in 5 races on Friday, including a pair of choices that filled a $37 exacta. And we maintained our high batting average for identifying false favorites, with 4 out of 5 FFs going down to defeat. If you stuck to our recommended optimizations and overweighted our 5-2 winner, made only a token bet on the 8-1 shot in our list, and bet rather evenly on the two exacta horses, you turned a decent profit for the day. All in all, it was kind of a textbook example of how and why our “Optimizing IVH” recommendations increase your ROI.

We’ll go for a repeat performance by sticking with Belmont and Gulfstream for Saturday. (Gulfstream turned up only 1 False Favorite we felt strongly about betting against.)

BELMONT PARK (Saturday, June 18, 2022)

RACE 2. Claiming $30,000 N2L. 1 mile and 1/16th. Turf. (Analysis for turf only.)

False Favorite: #8 Brazillionaire (3-1).

Reason: The Brazillionaire is a money burner. Purchased originally for $875,000, this turf runner was dropped into a $40,000 claimer by turf-specialist Chad Brown before even getting a chance to run on turf. He’s gone off at 3-1 or lower in 4 of 6 races without winning since Linda Rice claimed him for 40G. The mighty Irad Ortiz couldn’t get him within 2 lengths of the winner in 3 tries. Layoffs are becoming more regular, and there was a nearly one-month gap between his last start and his next official work.


#3 Born a Gambler (6-1). He’s tied for 2nd highest BRIS turf speed figure among horses looking to dump the favorite. He drops in for a tag for the first time in a long time and should enjoy the class relief.

#7 Bless Bless (7-2). He demolished nine rivals in his return from winter rest. He owns a win and a placing in his 2 starts among claimers, along with the highest recent BRIS turf figure in the field.

ALTERNATIVE PICK IN CASE OF A SCRATCH: #8 Seizing the Dream (5-1). He shows 4 consecutive improving works at 4 furlongs before turning in an easy breeze three days ago. Layoffs after every race are a concern.

RACE 9. State-Bred Allowance N1x. 7 furlongs. Turf. (Analysis for turf only.)

False Favorite: #5 Mr. Kringle (7-2).

Reason: He shows 7 consecutive failures at this purse level or below. This plodding late runner closed well last time when he had an ideal setup against horses that burned out on a very fast pace. He probably won’t see a repeat of that golden opportunity here.


#6 Spretto (8-1). I like his shortening up after setting the pace in a route race. That effort was preceded by a very snappy 4-furlong work. He seems fit enough, and he catches a weak allowance field here.

#11 Golquist (6-1). This lightly raced, fairly expensive colt catches a field of allowance failures. If you can look past his weak effort in his lone turf try (on a yielding course), you get a sharp turf rider and trainer with a horse talented enough to romp over MSW company in his first trip to the races.

GULFSTREAM PARK (Saturday, June 18, 2022)

RACE 4. Maiden Special Weights. 5.5 furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #1 Adios Gary (5-2).

Reason: He steps up in class after 5 straight stretch fades in abbreviated sprints. His most recent 2 failures came while favored. Lots of early speed types are entered here, so Gary won’t get much pace relief.


#4 Nic’s Bro (3-1). You see a lot of Tampa Bay horses in here shooting for glory in the summer-softened Gulfstream maiden ranks. With Nic’s Bro you get a trainer with a long history of success with top-level Gulfstream youngsters. You also get sharp works and a jockey who wins 25% of the time when riding for Ralph Nicks.

#6 Win No Joke (8-1). He owns a pedigree that suggests he can win nonclaiming sprints. David Fawkes, another GP trainer who does well with youngsters, tries for a second time to move him forward, with recent sharp works providing some hope.