Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, June 10, 2023

The RTSS cold streak continued yesterday. Based on the overall positive 2023 results, we believe that streak is a statistical blip that ends real soon. Likely today.

Let’s get back to winning! And let’s hit the Belmont Stakes!


RACE 1. Maiden Special Weights. 6 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #9 Love to Shop (5-2).

Reason: Despite this filly’s super-high speed figure and second-place finish last time, we’ll try to launch a win streak by betting against her. After not showing much speed in her debut, a dirt sprint, she broke even more slowly next time out on turf. Her late rally saw her lose ground in late stretch, and now Irad Ortiz opts for the Chad Brown filly. For the past few years, Pletcher and Brown have shared Irad, with Irad leaving one guy to win for the other. We suspect that’s happening here.


#5 Accept the Outcome (7-2). There’s no mistaking that the pedigree and run style suggest a strong preference for sprinting. With Irad Ortiz choosing this filly over Pletcher’s, we’ll make her our only bet, with twice as much to Place than to Win.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses

RACE 11. Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/4. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #8 Up to the Mark (8-5).

Reason: This 4-year-old clinched his first stakes win in the Grade 1 Turf Classic last time out. Impressive as he was drawing away by over 3 lengths, you have to question the quality of the field in which this allowance-only winner went off as the favorite. Today he faces two rivals with multiple US stakes wins and a pair of accomplished Charles Appleby shippers from Europe.


#3 Warren Point (5-1). He trailed his stablemate in career earnings last year despite winning twice as many races. He owns no wins in Group company but appears to be on his way to better things this year. Four of his 5 wins are at this distance, and he just missed winning a Group 1 race two races ago.

#4 Ottoman Fleet (5-2). With back-to-back stakes wins on two continents (the most recent one in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy on this course), he appears to be the stronger of the Appleby duo. William Buick resumes riding duties on this gelding that appears to like racing in the USA more than running in the Middle East.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of Euro shippers

RACE 12. Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/2. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Forte (5-2).

Reason: We were excited by the prospect of betting against him in the Kentucky Derby prior to his scratch. We hold the same low opinion of him here. We think his lack of early speed combined with only a slightly above-average late kick works well in early-season stakes races for 3-year-olds, but that combo loses effectiveness as the competition gets tougher.

Forte’s pedigree also fails to stack up to most

rivals in here in terms of marathon ability. With six rivals showing Tapit close up in their family tree, Forte faces a brigade of superior gene pools.


#2 Tapit Trice (3-1). He ranks closest to the favorite in terms of top speed figure. He had a rough and wide trip in the Kentucky Derby, but he’ll face fewer obstacles in this race. With a bit more tactical speed than the other Tapit children, he’ll be well positioned to strut his marathon stuff in the long stretch.

#3 Arcangelo (8-1). This son of Arrogate is lightly raced and looks to be still improving. At 8-1 he might richly reward anyone betting he’ll emerge as a top 3-year-old. Keep in mind that this is a year that hasn’t produced any horse that lives up to the Gold Standard defined in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby. Any further improvement could put him near the top of the charts heading into the summer stakes series.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Tapit Trice (3-1), 102
  • #3 Arcangelo (8-1), 101
  • #8 Angel of Empire (7-2), 101
  • #4 National Treasure (5-1), 100
  • #7 Hit Show (10-1), 99


RACE 5. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Fivefive Six Champ (8-5).

Reason: In 10 races, including three at this low level, he has never finished first or second. In all 10 races he has lost ground in the stretch.


#5 Majestic Drama (8-1). The debut at the $35,000 level sure looks like a warmup run. With three workouts since and a positive jockey switch to Reyes, this race looks like the money run for owner/trainer Fawkes, who hits with 23% of his second-time starters.

#8 Chief Rocka (4-1). Trainer Robert Hess hits above 20% with his route-to-sprint runners. He taught the Chief how to stalk and close in a sprint prior to stretching him to two turns. That seems like a good one-two punch for improving the Chief’s late kick as he returns to sprinting.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses