Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, February 11, 2023


RACE 7. Claiming $25,000. 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Pit Boss (7-2).

Reason: Rob Atras claimed him last time out for $25,000 when this runner finished in the money just behind an Atras runnerup named Musical Heart. Atras liked Musical Heart’s performance well enough to move that one into a $32,000 claimer on Friday, where MH faded badly. That means Atras wasn’t nearly as impressed with this guy as he was with a horse who failed badly yesterday. This runner’s only win since 2021 came at Mahoning Valley against much cheaper.


#6 Leddy (9-2). Linda Rice returns this runner to the claiming ranks after he failed twice in allowance company. The brief freshening and class drop should do the trick.

#9 American Rule (5-1). He’s 1 of 2 entrants for Orlando Noda. For the past 5 races he has been competing over his head. The class relief here is significant.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Grumps Little Tots (6-1), 89
  • #9 American Rule (5-1), 89
  • #6 Leddy (9-2), 88

RACE 9. Grade 3 Withers Stakes. 1 mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Arctic Arrogance (8-5).

Reason: While cutting back in distance from the 9-furlong Remsen to the 1-mile Jerome, Arctic Arrogance seemed to have a fitness edge over the sprinter Lugan Knight. He also had an edge in terms of recency and stakes experience. Despite those advantages he couldn’t get past Lugan Knight. In the Remsen he also lost a stretch battle and settled for second place.

With each Kentucky Derby prep, the competition gets tougher. Although the 2023 Withers isn’t stocked with Derby prospects, there is at least one that’s likely to deny victory again to the pride of NY. We think Arctic Arrogance will soon leave the Derby Trail to face more accommodating rivals in the NY-bred stakes ranks.


#4 Hit Show (9-5). Brad Cox already has 5 Kentucky Derby prep wins, and he finds a cushy spot for Hit Show. The 2023 Withers contains three NY bred horses, a PA-bred sprinter, a Kentucky-bred colt that’s 0 for 5 in stakes races and a horse that failed to cross the finish line first in three  maiden tries. Hit Show’s pedigree is loaded with the best stamina influences in North America, and he comes off a dominating allowance score.

Hit Show is our solo bet in this race, and we view any odds above even money to be a bargain.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Ninetyprcentmaddie (8-1), 94 (sprint)
  • #4 Hit Show (9-5), 89


RACE 2. Claiming $12,500 N3L. 7 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Kaeko (9-5).

Reason: After three severe late-race fades this filly got sent to the sidelines, got transferred to a new trainer, and got kicked 60% of the way down the class ladder. We can safely assume she’s not her old self.


#3 Perfect Provision (7-2). Former handler Saffie Joseph figured out her wheelhouse is extended sprints on dirt. New trainer Pedro Garcia applies that blueprint in an attempt to repeat the win last time out. The speed figures are a bit light recently, but she might revisit her older (higher) figs if she comes back sharp for this contest.

#4 Khozzy Valintine (7-2). She earned the second-highest figure in this field last time out as she returned to racing on dirt. She has hit the board 4 of 5 times on dirt and just 4 of 12 times on all weather surfaces. We expect an even better effort here in her second race off a layoff.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Khozzy Valintine (7-2), 81
  • #2 Raison the Glass (12-1), 76
  • #3 Perfect Provision (7-2), 75

BONUS RACE: GRADE 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. 1 mile and 1/16th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Dubyuhnell (9-5).

Reason: Danny Gargan’s Derby prospect is 2 for 2 since the blinkers went on, with the most recent score coming in the Grade 2 Remsen. But Dubyuhnell’s slow race splits and slowish workouts register him as a grinder type in our book. In this race, we see him being left further behind than usual in the early going and then running out of room to catch up in the short stretch. He’s not the weakest favorite of the weekend, but we think he’s vulnerable enough to buck the odds.


#3 Classic Legacy (12-1). Unlike others in this contest, this colt has yet to show his best. His maiden-breaking effort when he last ran (in November) featured a more alert start, faster fractions and a solid final time. This son of Into Mischief figures to improve for Bill Mott, who is known for his patient handling of young horses.

#11 Litigate (5-1). Luis Saez passes up a return mount on #1 Worthington to take a shot with this Todd Pletcher prospect. Litigate made a middle move into a torrid pace last time out and then held well for second. His works since then have been razor sharp. He figures to be forwardly placed in a field without any real early burners.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Prairie Hawk (6-1), 92
  • #11 Litigate (5-1), 92
  • #3 Classic Legacy (12-1), 91