Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, December 9, 2023

Friday was kind to us Lazy Bettors, with two winners in the three races covered and our 9-1 shot finishing second in our only losing prognostication.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 2. Claiming $40,000. 1 Mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 No Burn (9-5).

Reason: This gelding’s reign as a win machine ended a few races ago. His last two runs have been downright awful. Not coincidentally, both disappointments occurred after layoffs, suggesting physical issues have lessened his abilities. The class drop and stretchout help his cause, but we’ll bet there’ll be further drops after this one.

BETS

#3 Higher Quality (5-1). He might be over his head, but his 2-for-8 record at this distance is enticing, especially at longish odds. Last year he earned more money with fewer wins, so he might be cycling back up to a level he handled better in the past.

#6 Truculent (2-1). Seems like the logical choice, given the high speed figure and 4-for-8 record this year. His return from vacation at his highest claiming level looks like a big vote of confidence.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Truculent (2-1), 88
  • #3 Higher Quality (5-1), 86
  • #2 American Justice (12-1), 86

RACE 5. Claiming $12,500. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Clem Labine (7-5).

Reason: The change of climate didn’t do him much good, as his three races on the East Coast were worse than his California form. He showed no pop, early or late, and the drop looks like an admission that this particular experiment has failed.

BETS

#3 Nobodyridesforfree (15-1). He ships in from Finger Lakes for Chris Englehart, who knows where these northern New Yorkers fit best when moving to Aqueduct. The pattern is encouraging, as this runner has two wins off of his past two layoffs. Assume readiness.

#7 Dontbelate (9-2). After a few races over his head at $16,000, he returns to a level he has won at before. The route-to-sprint move is positive, as is his display of early speed against better.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Dontbelate (9-2), 84
  • #2 Winning Drive (5-1), 82
  • #3 Nobodyridesforfree (15-1), 82

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 9. State-Bred Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 A G’s Charlotte (5-2).

Reason: She won this race by a nose last year, but in her nine races since then she has finished behind most of her rivals here at least once. With just 2 wins against 5 placings this year, she seems to have hit a ceiling that’s difficult to break through.

BETS

#2 Free Like a Girl (3-1). She comes in off of her third win in the past six races, all at this level. With one of the highest recent speed figures in the field and great current form, odds above 2-1 seem like a bargain.

#4 Cheapskate Diva (15-1). She has earned most of her money on the turf, but with the highest recent speed figure and double-digit odds she seems worth a shot.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Cheapskate Diva (15-1), 92
  • #2 Free Like a Girl (3-1), 91
  • #7 Vale Male (6-1), 91